Methods in Labor Economics

The regression discontinuity design of this study

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Unformatted text preview: some urban areas in Britain. The regression discontinuity design of this study avoids a general comparisonbetween I students in school before and after the war. Furthermore, find similarresults using an older groupof cohorts from the NorthernIrelanddata. C. A Regression Discontinuityand InstrumentalVariables (RD-IV)Analysisfor the Returns to CompulsorySchooling in Britain and NorthernIreland In order to estimate more familiar and comparable returns to years of schooling, I also measured education changes by the age at which respondentsleft full-time school; the discontinuities observed in Figures 1 and 2 held true. The jump in education attainmentturned out to be, not surprisingly,similar, since raising the school-leaving age to 15 had little effect on studentswho stayed on beyond that age. Figure 4 plots the mean age cohorts left fulltime school by the year they were age 14, using native-born32- to 64-year-olds in the 1983 to 1998 British GHS. The vertical line indicates the year after which cohorts faced a schoolleaving age of 15. While the average education r attainment ises for progressivelylater birthco- VOL.96 NO. I OREOPOULOS:STIMATING AND LATEWITH OMPULSORY E ATE C SCHOOLING AWS L TABLE 1-ESTIMATED 161 EFFECT OF MINIMUM SCHOOL-LEAVING AGE ON AGE FINISHED FULL-TIME EDUCATION AND LOG ANNUAL EARNINGS (Great Britain and NorthernIreland, ages 25-64, 1935-1965) Sample population (1) (2) (3) (First stage) dependentvariable:Age finished full-time school (4) (5) (6) (7) Initial (Reduced form) dependentvariable: log annualearnings sample size Great Britain 0.440 0.436 0.453 0.065 [0.065]*** [0.071]*** [0.076]*** [0.025]** NorthernIreland 0.397 0.391 0.353 0.054 [0.074]*** [0.073]*** [0.100]*** [0.27]* G. Britain and N. Irelandwith 0.418 0.397 0.401 0.073 N. Irelandixed ffect FE Birth Cohort Polynomial Controls Age Polynomial Controls Age Dummies 0.064 0.042 [0.026]** [0.043] 0.074 0.074 [0.025]*** [0.045] 0.058 0.059 57264 8921 66185 [0.040]***[0.043]***[0.045]***[0.016]***[...
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