Assessing forecasting accuracy accuracy bias the

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Unformatted text preview: curacy BIAS The average of forecast errors of the Time The Series. Should to be as close to zero as possible. Should “+” indicates under-forecast of the TS “-” indicates over-forecast of the TS Bias should equal zero if using regression. Compare regression models using std. error of Compare significant predictors significant Weighted Moving Averages Weighted Types of Time Series Models Types Exponential smoothing New forecast is equal to the “old forecast” New plus an adjustment Specify a smoothing constant (a fraction of Specify forecasting discrepancy or error) error) Between 0 and 1; determines the magnitude of Between adjustment made to the “old forecast” Exponential Smoothing Exponential (Start with Actual as Forecast) How are we doing so far? How The Summary Section Types of Time Series Models Types Simple Regression Criterion V.: Variable you want to forecast...
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