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Unformatted text preview: , and offers the following “new, improved deal”: you can either stick with your
original choice, or switch to the remaining (unopened) curtain. Amidst the deafening roars of
“Stand pat!” and “Switch, you idiot!” from the crowd, Monty points out that, “previously your
chances of winning were 1/3, and now, since you know that the prize is behind one of the two
unopened curtains, your chances of winning have increased to 1/2, and thus the new improved
deal is indeed better.”
Use the theorem of total probability to determine:
(a) th...
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 Fall '08
 KennethZeger

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