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Unformatted text preview: Are voters learning anything from campaign ads? Do they update
their beliefs in real elections?
What substantive messages a¤ect them (if any)?
What candidates’attributes are most valued by voters: valence (Stokes
1963) or ideology/policy?
We tackle these issues in a real world randomized campaign (empirical
research outside the lab can’ address correlation of determinants of vote
choice & variation in communication treatments). Kendall, Nannicini & Trebbi (2014): “How Do Voters Respond to Information?” Motivation Empirical model Experimental design Reduced-form results Model estimation Conclusion What we do
Our approach in a nutshell:
In collaboration with the reelection campaign of incumbent mayor,
we split a city in four groups
Send di¤erent messages by both direct mail & phone calls: (1)
valence, (2) ideology, (3) double, (4) none
This allows us to look at true vote shares at precinct level
We also surveyed eligible voters just before/after election
We propose methodology to elicit voters’multivariate joint priors &
We estimate a structural model based on rational information
updating & random utility voti...
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- Winter '14