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Do they update their beliefs in real elections what

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Unformatted text preview: Are voters learning anything from campaign ads? Do they update their beliefs in real elections? What substantive messages a¤ect them (if any)? What candidates’attributes are most valued by voters: valence (Stokes 1963) or ideology/policy? We tackle these issues in a real world randomized campaign (empirical research outside the lab can’ address correlation of determinants of vote t choice & variation in communication treatments). Kendall, Nannicini & Trebbi (2014): “How Do Voters Respond to Information?” Motivation Empirical model Experimental design Reduced-form results Model estimation Conclusion What we do Our approach in a nutshell: In collaboration with the reelection campaign of incumbent mayor, we split a city in four groups Send di¤erent messages by both direct mail & phone calls: (1) valence, (2) ideology, (3) double, (4) none This allows us to look at true vote shares at precinct level We also surveyed eligible voters just before/after election We propose methodology to elicit voters’multivariate joint priors & posteriors We estimate a structural model based on rational information updating & random utility voti...
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