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CEE 202 Homework 2 Solutions

# Within a period of 4 years or 50000 miles without

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Unformatted text preview: se, the probability that the hand your drew contains exactly two aces is P(twoaces|fullhouse) =P(fullhouse⋂twoaces)/P(fullhouse) =1.108*10 ­4/0.00144 =0.077 You could have done this much more easily. If you have a full house, the two ­of ­a ­ kind can be one of 13 types of cards. 1/13 = 0.077. 5/7 CEE 202 – Engineering Risk & Uncertainty Spring 2011 (Bond) Homework 2 Combining probabilities 5)(15points) The probability that a male will die before his 66th birthday is 79.3%. The probability that a male will die before his 71st birthday is 71.5%. What is the likelihood that a 65 ­year ­old man will be alive in five years? Hint: What do you know about the 65 ­year ­old man? You already have the knowledge that the man has survived to age 65. This is a conditional probability—the sample space now excludes all the people who died before age 65. If you survive to age 70, then you must also survive to age 65. P(S70 ∩ S65) = 0.715 P(S70 | S65) = P(S70 ∩ S65) / P(S65) = 0.7...
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