# Continuous time markov chains formal construction

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Unformatted text preview: In continuous time, as in discrete time, the transition probability satisﬁes Theorem 4.1. Chapman–Kolmogorov equation. X ps (i, k )pt (k, j ) = ps+t (i, j ) k Why is this true? In order for the chain to go from i to j in time s + t, it must be in some state k at time s, and the Markov property implies that the two parts of the journey are independent. Proof. Breaking things down according to the state at time s, we have X P (Xs+t = j |X0 = i) = P (Xs+t = j, Xs = k |X0 = i) k Using the deﬁnition of conditional probability and the Markov property, the above is X X = P (Xs+t = j |Xs = k, X0 = i)P (Xs = k |X0 = i) = pt (k, j )ps (i, k ) k k (4.1) shows that if we know the transition probability for t &lt; t0 for any t0 &gt; 0, we know it for all t. This observation and a large leap of faith (which we will justify later) suggests that the transition probabilities pt can be determined from their derivatives at 0: q (i, j ) = lim h!0 ph (i, j ) h for j 6= i (4.1) If this limit exists (and it will in all the cases we consider) we will call q (i, j ) the jump rate from i to j . To explain this name we will compute the: Jump rates for Example 4.1. The probability of at least t...
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