Stochastic

The hot hand is a phenomenon known to most people who

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Unformatted text preview: nown to most people who play or watch basketball. After making a couple of shots, players are thought to “get into a groove” so that subsequent successes are more likely. Purvis Short of the Golden State Warriors describes this more poetically as 7 1.2. MULTISTEP TRANSITION PROBABILITIES “You’re in a world all your own. It’s hard to describe. But the basket seems to be so wide. No matter what you do, you know the ball is going to go in.” Unfortunately for basketball players, data collected by Gliovich, Vallone and Taversky (1985) shows that this is a misconception. The next table gives data for the conditional probability of hitting a shot after missing the last three, missing the last two, . . . hitting the last three, for nine players of the Philadelphia 76ers: Darryl Dawkins (403), Maurice Cheeks (339), Steve Mix (351), Bobby Jones (433), Clint Richardson (248), Julius Erving (884), Andrew Toney (451), Caldwell Jones (272), and Lionel Hollins (419). The numbers in parentheses are the number of shots for each player. P (H |3M ) .88...
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This document was uploaded on 03/06/2014 for the course MATH 4740 at Cornell.

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