Unformatted text preview: nown to most people who play or watch
basketball. After making a couple of shots, players are thought to “get into
a groove” so that subsequent successes are more likely. Purvis Short of the
Golden State Warriors describes this more poetically as 7 1.2. MULTISTEP TRANSITION PROBABILITIES
“You’re in a world all your own. It’s hard to describe. But the
basket seems to be so wide. No matter what you do, you know the
ball is going to go in.” Unfortunately for basketball players, data collected by Gliovich, Vallone and
Taversky (1985) shows that this is a misconception. The next table gives data
for the conditional probability of hitting a shot after missing the last three, missing the last two, . . . hitting the last three, for nine players of the Philadelphia
76ers: Darryl Dawkins (403), Maurice Cheeks (339), Steve Mix (351), Bobby
Jones (433), Clint Richardson (248), Julius Erving (884), Andrew Toney (451),
Caldwell Jones (272), and Lionel Hollins (419). The numbers in parentheses
are the number of shots for each player.
P (H 3M )
.88...
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This document was uploaded on 03/06/2014 for the course MATH 4740 at Cornell.
 Spring '10
 DURRETT
 The Land

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