Lecture 13

Lecture 13 - The Emergence of Modern Economic Growth A...

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The Emergence of Modern Economic Growth: A Comparative and Historical Analysis James A. Robinson Harvard October 26, 2009 James A. Robinson (Harvard) October 26, 2009 1 / 9
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Sub-Saharan Africa
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What was Indirect Rule?
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Consequences of Indirect Rule
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Source: Lange, Matthew (2004) “British Colonial Legacies and Political Development,’’ World Development , Volume 32, 905-922.
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Dependent Variables
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Results
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Source: Lange, Matthew (2004) “British Colonial Legacies and Political Development,’’ World Development , Volume 32, 905-922.
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Source: Lange, Matthew (2004) “British Colonial Legacies and Political Development,’’ World Development , Volume 32, 905-922.
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Source: Lange, Matthew (2004) “British Colonial Legacies and Political Development,’’ World Development , Volume 32, 905-922.
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More Puzzling Results
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Source: Nicola Gennaioli and Ilya Rainer (2007) “The Modern Impact of Precolonial Centralization in Africa,” Journal of Economic Growth , 12, 185-234.
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35 lbr sle som gab mli civ caf dji ken gnb bfa cmr tcd gin gmb nga mdg ner cog sdn tgo uga ago gha tza ben nam sen zmb eth moz mwi mrt bwa zwe rwa bdi com lso swz -20 0 20 40 60 % of roads paved (1990-2000) -.5 0 .5 Centralization coef = 21.534771, (robust) se = 7.0363973, t = 3.06 Figure 1: Indigenous centralization and paved roads (partial relation controlling for log of GDP/cap in 1986)
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36 lbr sle gab civ mli caf dji ken gnb gnq cmr bfa tcd gin gmb nga mdg cog ner sdn tgo zar uga ago gha tza nam ben sen zmb eth moz mwi mrt bwa zwe rwa bdi com lso swz -40 -20 0 20 40 % of infants immunized for DPT (2001) -.6 -.4 -.2 0 .2 .4 Centralization coef = 36.07716, (robust) se = 7.1253938, t = 5.06 Figure 2: Indigenous centralization and infant immunization (partial relation controlling for log of GDP/cap in 2001)
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37 lbr sle mli som caf gab civ ken gnb bfa cmr gin tcd gmb nga tgo ner tza mdg zar cog sdn uga ago gha eth sen ben mwi zmb nam bwa mrt lso moz rwa com bdi zwe swz -50 0 50 100 Infant mortality (1960-2001) -.5 0 .5 Centralization coef = -42.503394, (robust) se = 15.1238, t = -2.81 Figure 3: Indigenous centralization and infant mortality (partial relation controlling for log of GDP/cap in 1960)
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38 lbr mli civ caf ken dji gnb bfa cmr tcd gmb nga mdg cog sdn ner tgo uga zar tza gha ben sen nam zmb eth mwi mrt moz bwa bdi rwa lso zwe com swz -40 -20 0 20 40 Adult illiteracy rate (1970-2002) -.6 -.4 -.2 0 .2 .4 Centralization coef = -23.771236, (robust) se = 8.2938038, t = -2.87 Figure 4: Indigenous centralization and adult illiteracy (partial relation controlling for log of GDP/cap in 1970)
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39 lbr sle mli caf ken gnb cmr gmb cog sdn ner tgo uga zar gha tza sen ben zmb moz mwi bwa zwe rwa lso swz -1 0 1 2 3 School attainment (1960-1990) -.6 -.4 -.2 0 .2 .4 Centralization coef = 1.2428953, (robust) se = .48549674, t = 2.56 Figure 5: Indigenous centralization and school attainment (partial relation controlling for log of GDP/cap in 1960)
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Slavery and Long-Run Development in Africa
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Domestic Slavery and the Slave Trade
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; ;;; ;;; ASHANTI BOBANGI LUNDA ARADA B A M R BENIN K O N G D NG MBUNDU OVIMBUNDU KU YORUBA LOANGO GORÉE Island Ouidah Cabinda Luanda Timbuktu ZANZIBAR Basra Zabid Aden SOCOTRA S l a v e Coast Marzuq Ouargla Tripoli Palermo Rome Venice Genoa Istanbul Alexandria Calabar Elmina Mombassa Cartagena Goa Karachi Pernambuco Rio de Janeiro Montevideo Buenos Aires Bahia
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