Lecture 15

S south 7 8 logpop october 28 2009 22 29 border

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Unformatted text preview: (5) (6) Log(White Pop) Political Economy in the Post-Bellum U.S. South (7) (8) Log(Pop) October 28, 2009 22 / 29 Border Heterogeneity Land and labor markets respond to disenfranchisement. Want to see if effect varies by county and pair characteristics In particular, worried about spillovers and general equilibrium effects Look at interactions with measures of market integration/transportation costs No evidence of linear heterogeneity in market integration variables. Look at subsamples of county-pairs with closer centroids. Suresh Naidu (Guest Lecture) Political Economy in the Post-Bellum U.S. South October 28, 2009 23 / 29 Black Migration Effect Larger in Closer Pairs Effect of Disenfranchisement on Log Fraction Non White by County Pair Centroid Distance 0.00 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 -0.05 -0.10 -0.15 -0.20 -0.25 Distance Suresh Naidu (Guest Lecture) Political Economy in the Post-Bellum U.S. South October 28, 2009 24 / 29 Farm Value Effect Smaller in Closer Pairs Effect of Disenfranchisement on Farm Values by County Pair Centroid Distance 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 -0.05 -0.10 Distance Suresh Naidu (Guest Lecture) Political Economy in the Post-Bellum U.S. South October 28, 2009 25 / 29 Calibration Assume black income growth same as agricultural income growth. Then we can write the change in black income: ∆Y B ∆D = ∆M B ∆D ∆M B ∆Y B = ∆M B ∆D ∆M B ∆Y Y ∆Y B YB ∆Y B ∆M B ×M B MB = ∆D ∆M B 1 ∆Y B Y B (2) YB Can we calculate this? Suresh Naidu (Guest Lecture) Political Economy in the Post-Bellum U.S. South October 28, 2009 26 / 29 Calibration Have βy ≡ ∆M B ∆Y B YB = −.22 from 1870-1880 estimates Higgs estimates black pc annual income in 1867-1868 as 50$ Black population (assuming everyone is a potential migrant) 4.5 million in 1880. Use estimated disenfranchisement semi-elasticity of -.0289 0289× Get .−.22×.4.5 = 29.8 million 1880 dollars 02 = 600 million 2000 dollars. Suresh Naidu (Guest Lecture) Political Economy in the Post-Bellum U.S. South October 28, 2009 27 / 29 Sufficient Statistics Intuition: land fi...
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