Lecture 14

Some circumstances lead a society to become

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Unformatted text preview: to become prosperous and democratic, others lead it to be poor and undemocratic. This view suggests that if you could condition on the factors that determine the development path, there would be no causal e¤ect of income on democracy, even over a 500 year period. James A. Robinson (Harvard) The Emergence of Modern Economic Growth: A Comparative and Historical Analysis October 28, 2009 11 / 12 Figure 5 1 Democracy Growth and Income Growth 1500-1995 LTU CRI IND MNG MDG NER NIC PAK PHL LSO Change in Democracy .2 .4 .6 .8 MWI MLI HTI MOZ HND BEN COL SVK ARG PRY UKR MKD NAM NOR NZL AUS USA JPN CAN FIN ITA TTO NLD BEL ISR POL CZE HUN CHL BWA TUR BRAVEN LVABGR SLV MDA BGD ZMB SVN AUT MUS PRT GRC ESP DEU URY PAN JAM ECU ZAF THA BOL EST SWE IRL DNK GBR CHE TWN FRA KOR ALBCOG LKA GEO DOM ROM NPL CAF GNB RUS MEX ARM GTM MYS PER KHM BLR SEN GHA TZA GIN TGO YEM KGZ TCD UGA BFA RWA TJK SGP JOR TUN EGY DZA CMR KAZ KEN GNQ MRT NGA CIV ZWE AZE GAB HRV IRN SLE SDN IDN MMR VNM LAO GMB DJI CUBYUG CHN LBY MAR KWT ARE PRK 0 IRQ TKM UZB SWZ BHR OMN SYR QAT 0 1 SAU 2 3 Change in Log GDP per Capita 4 Conditioning on Historical Factors But what are these factors that determine the development path? The theory here is very underdeveloped in the paper. The idea is that this is to do with the...
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