Clearly no reverse causality mortality rates refer to

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Unformatted text preview: Comparative Development #2 Is the empirical approach valid? Clearly no reverse causality, mortality rates refer to two centuries ago Is the exclusion restriction of the 2SLS valid? Plausible: yellow fever, malaria and gastrointestinal diseases a¤ecting Europeans had much less e¤ect on native inhabitants, who had acquired and genetic immunity. Mortality rates of local troops very similar in di¤erent regions despite very large di¤erences in European mortality rates. James A. Robinson (Harvard) The Emergence of Modern Economic Growth: A Comparative and9, 2009 September Historical Analysis 20 / 24 Empirics: Colonial Origins of Comparative Development #3 Is the empirical approach valid? (continued) Check validity further by controlling for potential sources of direct e¤ect, including latitude, measures of geography, current prevalence of malaria and life expectancy. Use only variation due to yellow fever, which is now mostly eradicated, thus less likely to have direct e¤ect. Use over identi…cation tests to check validity of instrument. Also note that if the instrument is valid, it solves the errors-in-variables problem. These checks all support the validity of the approach. Note: not estimating the causal e¤ect of being colonized vs. not colonized James A. Robinson (Harvard) The Emergence of Modern Economic Growth: A Comparative and9, 2009 September Historical Analysis 21 / 24 Main Results Very large causal e¤ects of institutions on long-run growth. Di¤erences in institutions account for over income per capita today (long-run e¤ect) 3 4 of the variation in Robust in di¤erent subsamples Robust to controlling for continent dummies Robust to controlling for latitude, whether landlocked, temperature, humidity Robust to controlling for current prevalence of malaria and life expectancy Robust when exploiting only yellow fever Overidenti…cation tests supportive. Also no evidence of any e¤ect of geography or religion on long run growth James A. Robinson (Harvard) The Emergence of Modern Economic Growth: A Comparative and9, 2009 Sep...
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This document was uploaded on 02/28/2014 for the course ECON 2328 at Harvard.

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