05 population million people 159 031 population

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Unformatted text preview: *** (0.11) (0.08) More than 5km from the coast -0.14*** 0.03 (0.05) (0.05) Population (million people) 1.59*** (0.31) Population squared -1.16*** (0.23) Gini inequality index of land ownership -0.54** (0.21) Gini income inequality index 2.76*** (0.78) Observations 400 400 400 R-squared 0.6 0.64 0.75 F-test of excluded instruments 65.77 Partial R-squared of excluded instruments 0.4746 65 Results #2 Using these historical variables they then estimate an IV model of the e¤ect of being a commune on social capital where commune is instrumented by the presence of a bishop in 1,000 or whether or not the city had Etruscan roots. Finally, using these same sources of variation they examine the causal e¤ect of social capital on income per-capita. James A. Robinson (Harvard) The Emergence of Modern Economic Growth: A Comparative and Historical Analysis September 16, 2008 18 / 24 Table 9: Instrumental variable estimates The table shows I.V. estimates of the effect of having been an independent city on measures of current social capital. Instruments used for the estimates are an indicator of whether the city was a Bishop city in 1000 C.E. and an indicator of whether the city was founded by the Etruscans. The bottom of the table shows the F-test for the excluded instruments in the first stage regression, the partial R-squared of the excluded instruments in the first stage regression and the p-value of the Sargan test for the validity of the excluded instruments. Estimates are run on the sample of the largest 400 towns located in the Center-North of Italy. Robust standard errors are reported in parentheses. *** significant at less than 1%; ** significant at 5%; * significant at 10%. Commune: basic definition Non-profit organizations 1.03** (0.47) Referenda turnout 1.98*** (0.75) Organs donation organizations 0.42*** (0.13) Commune: 1300C.E. definition Elevation Max difference in elevation Intersection of Roman roads On the coast More than 5km from the coast Population (million people) Population squared Gini inequality index of land ownership Gini income inequality index Observations F-test of excluded instruments Sargan test: p-value Non-profit organizations Referenda turnout Organs donation organizations 2.43** (1.11) -6.76*** (1.98) -2.78*** (0.44) -0.09 (0.51) -2.99*** (0.70) 0.14 (0.76) -13.21*** (4.10) 4.65 (2.89) 3.50** 0.57*** (0.18) -0.17 (0.27) -0.19** (0.08) -0.16* (0.10) -0.07 (0.11) -0.24 (0.16) -0.59 (0.80) 0.12 (0.52) 0.70* (1.58) -12.96* (6.68) 400 18.99 0.0072 (0.42) 3.92*** (1.22) 400 18.99 0.7621 0.92 (0.79) 0.52* (0.30) 0.89*** (0.32) -0.17 (0.35) -0.68** (0.29) -5.31** (2.14) 2.02 (1.61) 2.11** -7.27*** (1.54) -2.87*** (0.44) 0.03 (0.50) -2.89*** (0.71) 0.03 (0.75) -11.85*** (3.59) 3.75 (2.64) 3.39** -0.32 (0.21) -0.21** (0.09) -0.13 (0.09) -0.06 (0.11) -0.27* (0.16) -0.15 (0.79) -0.17 (0.52) 0.66 1.34** (0.60) 1.21 (0.93) 0.57** (0.25) 0.81*** (0.31) -0.21 (0.32) -0.60** (0.29) -6.22*** (2.05) 2.61* (1.50) 2.21** (1.02) 14.68*** (4.99) 400 65.77 0.1507 (1.48) -12.45* (6.56) 400 65.77 0.0083 (0.42) 4.18*** (1.21) 400 65.77 0.9928 (0.96) 14.28*** (4.90) 400 18.99 0.11198 66 Table 13: Effect of social capital on income per capita The table shows estimates of the effect of s...
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