EC25-Schedule_Estimation

05 1 0 x x x 1 08 1 04 1 0 0 96 x x x 1 13 x 1 06 1

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Unformatted text preview: X 1 .0 X 0 .94 The divisions approach to risk is evenly balanced between risk-aversion and risk acceptance, leading to a nominal rating (N) and no effect on the schedule. The selected ratings result in the following factor multiplier values, which calculates an overall acceleration factor of 1.01, suggesting the division’s 12-20-2012approach will result in a schedule duration close to 29 the nominal case: Expected schedule reduction of 1.09/0.96 = 0.88 (green arrow) Actual schedule delay of 15% due to side effects (red arrows) Model prediction: 0.88*1.09*1.04*1.06*1.06 = 1.13 • • This is encouraging , but it is unknown to what extent the model will accurately describe projects outside this limited set. We are in the process of collect ing additional data points over a wider variety ered with iative, and a goal of Case Study: From Plan-Driven to Agile tive given preparing ors whose alues (the aware of g positive an overall 1.06=1.29. rated with TA B LE V. FIN AL TO -BE RATING F AC TORS Next Project: Fix Side Effects; Reduce Bureaucracy Ac cel era to rs/Rating s Pr o du c t Facto r s Sim pl icity El em e n t R eu se Lo w-Prio rity De fe rra ls Mod els v s Do cu men ts Ke y Tec hn o logy Mat uri ty Pr o c ess Fac tor s Co n cu rre n t Operatio n al Co n cept, Require me n ts , Arc h it ec ture, V&V Proc e ss Stre am linin g Ge n eral SE too l su p port CIM (C ov erage , In te gr at io n, M at uri ty ) Pr o je ct Fac to rs Proj ec t siz e (p eak # o f per sonnel ) Co llab o rat io n sup port Sing le -doma in M M PTs (M ode ls, Meth ods, Proc e sse s, T oo ls) Mul ti-dom a in M M PTs Pe o pl e Fac tor s Ge n eral SE KS As (K n owle dg e, S k ills, Ag ili ty) Sing le -Do mai n KSAs Mul ti-Do m ai n KSAs Te a m Co mp atib ilit y Risk Ac c epta nce F acto r ng with Concept, activities , High, for d external be at least dup factor resulting ould be p of 23% s schedule improving remaining er factors, VL 1.09 L 1.05 N 1. 0 X H 0.96 VH 0 .92 XH 0 .87 X X X X 1.09 1.05 1. 0 0.96 0 .92 0 .87 X X X 1.08 1.04 1. 0 0.96 0 .93 0. 9 0 .89 0 .84 0 .89 0 .84 X X X 1.13 X 1.06 1. 0 0.94 X X X 1.13 1.06 1. 0 X X 0.94 Model estimate: 0.88*(0.92/0.96)*(0.96/1.05) = 0.77 speedup Project results: 0.8 speedup Model tracks project status; identifies further speedup potential 12-20-2012 30 Outline • Methods for schedule estimation – – – • CORADMO Expedited Software Development Model – – – • Size and effort-based: CS 577b interpretation of COCOMO II effort Plan-based: critical-path analysis Cost-schedule tradespace analysis RAD: Rapid Application Development Expedited Schedule Drivers Relation to RAD Opportunity Tree 31 RAD Opportunity Tree elements 12-20-2012...
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This document was uploaded on 03/10/2014.

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