Class3 - The Logic of Threats and Promises Capabilities,...

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The Logic of Threats and Promises Capabilities, Credibility, and Effectiveness The Logic of Threats and Promises The exercise of power often occurs through threats and promises. Power also assists in the successful use of threats and promises. Often, threats and promises work together. The following slides depict schematics of threats and promises, providing a way to think about their logic. Game Tree of a Threat Below shows B’s response to a threat by A, followed by A’s decision to carry out its threat. B would rather submit than face a conflict, but would rather that A submitted. A would like B to submit. A B Acquiesce Defy Carry Out Back Down B Submits Conflict A Submits A No Threat Make Threat Do Not Make Threat Game Tree of a Promise Below shows B’s response to a promise by A, followed by A’s decision to live up to its promise. B would like A to honor its promise, but if not, B would rather defect than be taken advantage of. A would like B to follow the agreement.
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A B Defect Follow Break Carry Out B Cheats A Cheats Promise Kept A No Promise Make Promise Do Not Make Promise Examples of Threats and Promises Threats by A: Go to war if B does not accept A’s conditions (ultimatum) Retaliate by raising tariffs on B’s goods if B’s does not lower trade barriers Promises by A: Come to B’s aid if B is attacked by another state
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Class3 - The Logic of Threats and Promises Capabilities,...

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