Reading Notes on Denuclearization and Human Rights in North Korea

But none of these mechanisms is likely to work in nk

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Unformatted text preview: sts and the success of this program allows PY’s propaganda that insists sufferings and destitution was a necessary sacrifice, voluntarily made by the selfless NK people in order to safeguard their country and nation against what they perceive as their surrounding enemies. Surrender of weapons would make past sacrifices meaningless. • The third and most important goal is to increase North’s ability to apply pressure on the international community. The NK leaders are painfully aware that their country is not a major international player. They have an outdated economic system which cannot sustain itself which means they need aid to keep the system functioning and they understand that the world needs a sustainable and compelling reason to provide them with such aid. They are stuck with thie inefficient economid model because they cannot handle the risks associated with a any kind of economic development in market reform. North Korean government is very dependent on information control and all that would fall apart. The existence of a prosperous South Korea just a step away makes slow reform and increasing awareness of the possibility and the implications of reform inconsistent with sustained repressive regime. • Military force against NK is not an option o Way too expensive o Moral and legal considerations o Surgical strikes ineffective. They have good underground facilities. Impossible to locate their weapons- grade plutonium. Destruction of research facilities will not have major impact. They already have what they need. They only need a few nuclear devices to fulfill their goals o Large scale invasion would take forever and would have huge costs because of the mountainous, rugged terrain. South Korea would be against it. China and Russia would not 100 percent back the US. • Sanctions? • o Strict sanctions regime is difficult to impose since China and Russia will be unwilling to be party to a truly rigorous sanctions regime. o The strategy of economic sanctions is based on the assumption that dissatisfied people would press for change in the policy which led to the international sanctions in the first place, or simply overthrow their noncomplying government. But none of these mechanisms is likely to work in NK. The optimists who believe that NK can be persuaded to abandon its nuclear weapons, usually cite three major incentives which can be put on the table: monetary payments and other aid, security guarantees and normalization of relations with the US o Once money is spend, PY will have great diff...
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