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T h u s it was natural to elease to release

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Unformatted text preview: dying o , s ar a r bu e p o c er ribut shown by the dashed line in Figure 4. T h u s it was natural to elease to release. individual a h ocorren t i n t x happly uni- and multivariate regression and putenomelaaion eecquisite detail. Similarly, a system, a REND VERAGE pro and t r a p eries models to niques to fit appropriate regressioncess, oime-shenomenon may be viewed from the outside, by d a general upward trend in the size, acts of observing; clarifying; and by measuring and modeling represent the process for purposes of planning, forecasting, and e systemmproving et in intenanrcas apwhole. A s the studtriprutgrs,spedteevi-, and trends. From such activities i and th ima part o e ro- identifiable at y b o e e s at , rns onents, dence aec, matlemdnhs,t instruc- ighteconsiider ancreasing knowledge and understanding, based on modulcs ust u atee t t a one m on obta ns i software maintein Figure ceanh envarnoempnramepers tha s a ehavior of both tore anistmm and its subsystems, the process t roject e b self-regulating h g sy s e , nan 1 . T de ha i c us ea t nds. Whencthte aapparentldatra were shand s,ts ut-bproallsseobeying its subje t o veraged y andom ock i b su over ce - s. e 2 , the wn specific cernaAVERAGEioELEASEI d and internal dynamics. t vat R aws o previously o rseircdatan lha SEQUENCE NUMBER LEGEND: Starting with the initial release of os/360 as a base, we have 0 SIZE IN MODULES I M s t L E S se L E D T h uODUheHANDfirst observations encstudieddtthe isearchVERAGE RELEASEI ourage h e nte aA tion between management and the evolution c for models +RELEASE INTERVAL SEQUENCE NUMBER data were tpepresentsedhown in tFatgoverofedLts/ed60amiusing veorain inofependent variablesof the improvetha r lotted a s laws higure n 0oEGEND:yODULES cbeha ci rt h IN d RELEASE SEQUENCE NUMBE Sl2E 3 M n by X MODULE of nonltihe metaossitblm exponential -on, people,S HANDLEDprogram material near-p sys e y of organizati m+ RELEASEdINTERVAL ncement (i. e . , maintenance) process. We cannot ent an and a enh trapolatiinvolved in the cuethiongand maintenance process, i n the evoluon suggested f r r at er rowth say at this time that we have used all the key independent varitly at odtds wifth rogrammingrsyntems. the then cu re s t proion o p ables. T h e r e is undoubtedly much more to be learned about the also highly erratic with major, but riz t programming proed, fluctuationsrhapswn ciessairy reo4eby varhabeewhy wethallege thattcnu-ractea w seofhe sho ne n F gu t xplain i er l s and e data con i ha I t is pe l cess. Our method of study has been that of regression-outside ase to rels acre.atievemaieltessanlm,ont enhancgeme4 t S e raa lvor a gprogramming Fi ure n i n de f e o u e s e N on, r t h n e n , a ce a s d p ogr in-which weohtavetrends eo f “structuredranaamsis.” Starting term d a ly with gr w h tTuesday, Septemberms.13t veis theacttraleds eaience ofall who have been ino the dsyste 10,oI ry cl r u en xp r s isplay f evolution Growth Trends . X studied the programming process:’ as it perpment of os/360, and now give a preliminary roject statistics of this programming system, survived a number of versions o r releases gan. T h e data for each release included meaf the system, the number of modules added, , the release d a t e , information on manpower used and costs involved i n each release. In large, apparently stochlonger ariations in the It takes astic, v and s from releaseonger ase.release the l to rele to the programming process What can you deduce from these graphs? Figure 3 • A v e r a gg r o w t h e trends of system attributes compared with p l a n n e d growth next release indicated a general upward trend in the size, ost of the system and the maintenance proThe dule of tatements by components, mosize s, sincreases, instrucover time handled in Figure 1 . T h e various parameters xpose trends. When the averaged data were in Figure 2 , tIterequires modifying ta had h previously erraticda smooth. more and more modules • • per plotted as shown in Figure ditional data were each release spicions of nonlinear-possibly exponential xity. Extrapolation suggested further growth gnificantly at odds with the then current proa were also highly erratic with major, but Tuesday, elated, fluctuations shown in Figure 4 by corr September 10, 13 I LEGEND: 0 Sl2E I N MODULES X M O D U L E S HANDLED RELEASE INTERVAL + I AVERAGE RELEASE SEQUENCE NUMBER 0 Sl2E I N MODULES X M O D U L E S HANDLED of nonlinear-possibly exponential + RELEASE INTERVAL rapolation suggested further growth ly at odds...
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