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Hansen et al 2006 Global Temperature Changes

Hansen et al 2006 Global Temperature Changes - Global...

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Global temperature change James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Reto Ruedy, Ken Lo, David W. Lea, and Martin Medina-Elizade doi:10.1073/pnas.0606291103 2006;103;14288-14293; originally published online Sep 25, 2006; PNAS This information is current as of September 2006. & Services Online Information www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/103/39/14288 etc., can be found at: High-resolution figures, a citation map, links to PubMed and Google Scholar, Supplementary Material www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/0606291103/DC1 Supplementary material can be found at: References www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/103/39/14288#BIBL This article cites 35 articles, 7 of which you can access for free at: www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/103/39/14288#otherarticles This article has been cited by other articles: E-mail Alerts . click here at the top right corner of the article or Receive free email alerts when new articles cite this article - sign up in the box Rights & Permissions www.pnas.org/misc/rightperm.shtml To reproduce this article in part (figures, tables) or in entirety, see: Reprints www.pnas.org/misc/reprints.shtml To order reprints, see: Notes:
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Global temperature change James Hansen* †‡ , Makiko Sato* , Reto Ruedy* § , Ken Lo* § , David W. Lea , and Martin Medina-Elizade *National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Columbia University Earth Institute, and § Sigma Space Partners, Inc., 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025; and Department of Earth Science, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 Contributed by James Hansen, July 31, 2006 Global surface temperature has increased 0.2°C per decade in the past 30 years, similar to the warming rate predicted in the 1980s in initial global climate model simulations with transient greenhouse gas changes. Warming is larger in the Western Equatorial Pacific than in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific over the past century, and we suggest that the increased West–East temperature gradient may have increased the likelihood of strong El Niños, such as those of 1983 and 1998. Comparison of measured sea surface temperatures in the Western Pacific with paleoclimate data suggests that this critical ocean region, and probably the planet as a whole, is approximately as warm now as at the Holocene maximum and within 1°C of the maximum temperature of the past million years. We conclude that global warming of more than 1°C, relative to 2000, will constitute ‘‘dangerous’’ climate change as judged from likely effects on sea level and extermination of species. climate change El Niños global warming sea level species extinctions G lobal temperature is a popular metric for summarizing the state of global climate. Climate effects are felt locally, but the global distribution of climate response to many global climate forcings is reasonably congruent in climate models (1), suggesting that the global metric is surprisingly useful. We will argue further, consistent with earlier discussion (2, 3), that measurements in the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans provide a good indication of global temperature change.
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