Pop2 - Demographic Transition Model This model has been...

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Unformatted text preview: Demographic Transition Model This model has been widely used to depict the stages of a country's population country' growth. It is based on the historic experience of European countries. It has four stages: First Stage: high birth rate + high Stage: fluctuating death rate leads to slow population growth. Probably characterized world until ~1750. No longer seen. Demographic Transition Model Second Stage: Continued high birth rate + Stage: declining death rate leads to dramatic population increase and increase in life expectancy. Contemporary examples: S and SE Asia, Latin America. Pakistan CBR = 30 / CDR = 9, Bolivia CBR = 32 / 9, CDR = 9. 9. Demographic Transition Model Third Stage: birth rate declines as families Stage: deliberately reduce it. E.g., Chile, CBR = 18 / CDR = 6; Thailand, CBR = 14 / CDR 6; = 6. 6. Fourth Stage: CBR and CDR both very Stage: low. Population may even decline. E.g., Germany, CBR = 9 / CDR = 10; Denmark, 10; CBR = 12 / CDR = 11, Hungary, CBR = 10 11, / CDR = 13. These are `old' countries. 13. old' Demographic Transition Model For reasons that are not fully understood many underdeveloped countries have been stuck in Stage Two. Social issues Two. and attitudes appear to be the primary reasons that birth rates have not come down in these countries. The Demographic Transition Model The Demographic Equation Population change = net natural change + net migration. migration. Net natural change stems directly from birth and deaths in a population. Migration is the movement of people: emigration = departures; immigration = arrivals. 1 Migration By definition migration is a one-way trip. oneHowever, so-called counter or return somigration is recognized. If Thorn decides to return to Great Britain after a career in academics in the USA that would be counter or return migration. Forced Migration 16th 19th Centuries: 10-12 million Africans 10shipped to the western hemisphere. ~1 million sent to USA, about half of total sent to Caribbean, and the remainder to Central and South America. 1780s: Australia was a Penal Colony. 1825-40: The Five Civilized Tribes (The Trail of 1825Tears), Cherokee, Choctaw, etc. 1900s: USSR had gulags. 1983 (2 million) and 1985 (700 000): Nigeria expelled non-Nigerians due to unemployment, non- Reluctant Relocation Indonesian government has sent 6 million Javans to Irian Jaya. Voluntary Push and Pull Factors Place utility: anticipated satisfaction / utility: dissatisfaction. Step migration: rural to small town to big migration: city. Channelized migration: no family links, but migration: strong ethnic and/or cultural links, e.g., Scandinavians to MN and WI, what were then called southern "black's" to northern black' cities in USA, Turks to Germany. Refugees 20 International Refugees, 19512004 Source: UNHCR The right to leave a country is widely accepted in the West, but not necessarily everywhere (e.g., USSR, China). However, the right to `arrive' is widely arrive' controlled (visas, etc.). Today Palestine (~4 million) and Afghanistan (~3.6 million) are by far the biggest sources of refugees. Million Persons 15 10 5 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 www.worldwatch.org 2 Refugees and Others of Concern to UNHCR, 19612005 30 Source: UNHCR Internally Displaced Populations, 19862004 30 25 Million Persons 20 15 10 5 0 Source: IFRCRCS 25 Million Persons 20 15 10 5 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 www.worldwatch.org www.worldwatch.org Global Population Distribution >50% of the global population is rural ~47% of global population is urban. At least 408 cities of >1 million people. 90% of humanity lives in the northern hemisphere. 50% of people live on 5% of the land. Four Great Population Clusters East Asia: (Japan, China, Taiwan, S. Asia: Korea), roughly 25% of humanity. China = 20%. South Asia: (India, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Asia: Sri Lanka), roughly 20% of humanity, Europe: roughly 13% of humanity. Europe: NE USA + adjoining Canada, much Canada, smaller. Population in Industrial vs. Developing Countries, 1970 and 2000, with Projections for 2010 and 2030 2,000 10 World Population 65 and Over, 19502000, with Projections to 2050 Source: UN Developing Countries - Urban Population 8 Source: UN 1,600 World Population, 65 and Over Developing Countries Industrial Countries Developing Countries - Rural Population Industrial Countries - Total Population Billion People 6 Million 1,200 800 4 2 400 0 0 1970 2000 2010 2030 www.worldwatch.org 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 www.worldwatch.org 3 Thomas Robert Malthus 1766-1834, English economist and 1766demographer. Population increase is geometric, resource increase is arithmetic. Predicted doom and gloom still may happen. When population increase > carrying capacity there is dieback. Largest Countries and Populations Area Russia Canada China USA Brazil Population China (1.3 billion) India (1.1 billion) USA (292 million) Indonesia (220 mill) Brazil (176 million) Russia (144 million) World's Most Populous Countries, 2005, with Projections for 2050 1,800 1,600 Population in Millions 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Br az il Pa ki st an Fe de ra tio B an n gl ad es h N ig er ia Ja pa n M ex ic o Vi et N am Ph ili pp in es na In di a s St at e Ch i do n es ia Source: UN Population Division Largest Cities (in Millions) 1960: London (9), Tokyo (11), NY (14). 1960: 2000: Sao Paolo (18), Mexico City (18), 2000: Tokyo (26). 2015: Mumbai (23), Dhaka (23), Tokyo 2015: (27). 2005 2050 d ni te In R us si an U www.worldwatch.org Annual Population Growth of Cities and Slums, 19902005 5 Source: UN-HABITAT Urban Population by Country Type Urban Growth Slum Growth Percentage Change Per Year 4 3 2 1 0 tA as he ut So Sa bSu d In a si tA es W st Ea A a si h ut So A t in La Am N th or A u Co al tri us n ra ha -1 fri a si a ic er ca a si a ric Af s rie nt www.worldwatch.org 4 Suggested Keys to Pop. Reduction Eradicate female illiteracy (8th grade is the key level). Full employment and pay for women Reduce infant mortality Universal access to family planning. Globally women: do 2/3 work, earn 1/10 pay, and hold less than 1% of wealth. 5 ...
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