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Unformatted text preview: rder to win the stuﬀed
monkey Tom needs to play a game that costs $1. In
the game there are 5 shells and a ball that is hidden
behind one of the shells. In order to win the monkey,
Tom needs to pick the shell that the ball is under. The
monkey overall is worth $3. Assume in all parts of this
problem the probability the ball is behind a give shell
is .2 (i.e. 1/# of shells)
Determine using a decision tree if it is in Toms best
interest to play the game.
Solution. The decision tree is: E [B ] = 0.2 × 2 − 0.8 × 1 = −0.4 < 0,
so dont play...
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This note was uploaded on 03/18/2014 for the course MGMT 15.053 taught by Professor Jamesorli during the Spring '07 term at MIT.
- Spring '07