EL Valuation Bremer

EL Valuation Bremer - Prices as of close on Levered Total...

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Prices as of close on 02/12/13 Ticker Company Total Debt Tax Rate 32% NYSE:AVP Avon Products Inc 1.46 3195.9 8985.438 35.57% 1.18 Risk Free Rate 3.17% NYSE: CL Colgate-Palmolive Co 0.44 5230 51053.625 10.24% 0.41 Mkt Risk Premium 6.02% NasdaqGS: RDEN Elizabeth Arden, Inc 1.39 353.5 1109.6 31.86% 1.14 EL Weight of Debt 0.56% NYSE: KMB Kimberly-Clark Corp 0.32 6734 34998.07 19.24% 0.28 EL Cost of Debt 0.869% ENXTPA: OR L'Oreal SA 0.46 248 67050.72 0.37% 0.46 EL Tax Rate 32% NYSE: LTD Limited Brands, Inc 1.54 4594 12931.856 35.52% 1.24 NYSE: PG Procter & Gamble Co 0.44 33426 207554.566 16.10% 0.40 NYSE: EL The Estee Lauder Companies 1.33 1356.1 24228.222 5.60% 1.28 Average 0.9225 0.80 Average Unlevered Beta for Comps 0.80 D/E 5.60% Tax Rate 32% EL Levered Beta 0.83 WACC EL Inputs (CapIQ) Mkt Risk Premium 6.02% Company Name Estee Lauder Companies Multiplied by Bottom up Beta 0.829085073 Ticker EL Adj: MRP 4.99% Total Debt 1356.1 Add: RFR 3.17% Total Preferred 0 Cost of Equity 8.16% Multiplied by EL Weight of Equity 99.44% Market Cap 238871 Cost of Equity Portion 8.12% Cost of Debt 0.869% Tax Rate 32% A-T Cost of Debt 0.59% Multiplied by EL Weight of Debt 0.56% A-T Cost of Debt Portion 0.0033% WACC 8.12% Levered Beta Mkt. Value Equity Debt/ Equity Unlevered Beta http://www.thestreet.com/story/11840689/1/estee-lauder-cos-inc-stock-buy-recommendation-reiterated-el.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Revenue 7910.8 7323.8 7795.8 8810 9713.6 10490.69 11329.94 12236.34 13092.88 14009.38 14849.95 15740.94 16370.58 16697.99 17031.95 17287.43 Revenue Growth -7.4% 6.4% 13.0% 10.3% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 7% 7% 6% 6% 4% 2% 2% 1.50% Net Fixed Assets 1043.1 1026.7 1023.6 1143.1 1231.8 1384.58 1472.89 1590.72 1767.54 1891.27 2004.74 2125.03 2210.03 2254.23 2384.47 2420.24 Net Fixed Assets / Revenues 13.2% 14.0% 13.1% 13.0% 12.7% 13.2% 13% 13% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5% 13.5% 14% 14% EBIT 825.1 565.1 907.3 1182.2 1394.5 1573.60 1756.14 1921.11 2055.58 2241.50 2375.99 2518.55 2652.03 2705.07 2793.24 2852.43 EBIT Margin 10.4% 7.7% 11.6% 13.4% 14.4% 15.0% 15.5% 15.7% 15.7% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.2% 16.2% 16.4% 16.5% Taxes 288.3 191.1 271.4 370.9 443.0 503.6 562.0 614.8 657.8 717.3 760.3 805.9 848.7 865.6 893.8 912.8 Tax Rate 34.9% 33.8% 29.9% 31.4% 31.8% 32% 32% 32% 32% 32% 32% 32% 32% 32% 32% 32% Depreciation 250.7 254 263.7 294.4 295.8 344.22 368.61 399.01 440.96 468.78 500.00 530.34 551.25 561.64 593.93 603.43 Depr Rate as % of Net Fixed Assets 24.0% 24.7% 25.8% 25.8% 24.0% 24.9% 25.0% 25.1% 24.9% 24.8% 24.9% 25.0% 24.9% 24.9% 24.9% 24.9% CAPX 473.8 348.3 281.3 607.1 428.3 191.44 280.29 281.18 264.14 345.05 386.52 410.06 466.25 517.44 463.69 567.67 CAPX Rate as % of Net Fixed Assets 45.4% 33.9% 27.5% 53.1% 34.8% 13.8% 19.0% 17.7% 14.9% 18.2% 19.3% 19.3% 21.1% 23.0% 19.4% 23.5% Non-Cash WC 686.3 588.8 428.1 490.2 381.6 665.09 665.37 665.57 710.80 756.77 845.93 876.43 901.51 921.80 943.35 962.23 Non-Cash WC/Revenue 8.7% 8.0% 5.5% 5.6% 3.9% 6.3% 5.9% 5.4% 5.4% 5.4% 5.7% 5.6% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.6% Chg in Non-Cash WC -97.5 -160.7 62.1 -108.6 283.49 0.28 0.20 45.23 45.97 89.16 30.50 25.08 20.29 21.55 18.88 FCFF 939.34 1282.21 1423.98 1529.39 1601.98 1639.99 1802.40 1863.31 1863.36 2008.09 1956.54 Terminal Value 30005.678 Total Cash Flows 939.34 1282.21 1423.98 1529.39 1601.98 1639.99 1802.40 1863.31 1863.36 2008.09 31962.21 Firm Value $23,751.08 WACC 8.12% Less: LT Debt 1069.1 Terminal Growth 1.50% Plus Cash and Mkt Sec. 1347.7 Shares Outstanding 386.6 Equity Value $24,029.68 Intrinsic Value $62.16 Current Price 63.10 Price Difference ($0.94) Premium -1.5%
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Ratios Growth Profit(LTM) Efficiency Risk Sales Growth Net Income Growth Company (Exchange: Ticker) 1 Year 5 Year CAGR 1 Year 5 Year Avon Products Inc (NYSE: AVP) 10.7 20.47 -5.1% 1.5% - - 61.1% -0.4% 7.4% 7.6% -2.7% 1.46 1.18 Colgate-Palmolive Co (NYSE: CL) 11.8 18.55 2.1% 4.4% 1.7% 7.3% 58.2% 14.5% 25.9% 33.4% 106.7% 0.44 0.41 Elizabeth Arden, Inc (NasdaqGS:RDEN) 7.8 14.13 8.1% 2.6% -1.8% 2.4% 50.3% 4.0% 11.7% 8.9% 10.4% 1.39 1.14 Kimberley-Clark Corp (NYSE:KMB) 9.6 16.06 1.0% 2.9% 10.0% -0.8% 33.8% 8.3% 18.9% 16.1% 33.8% 0.32 0.28 L'Oreal SA (ENXTPA: OR) 13.8 21.9 10.4% 5.7% 17.6% 1.6% 70.7% 12.8% 19.0% 11.2% 14.9% 0.46 0.46 Limited Brands, Inc (NYSE:LTD) 7.8 14.31 -1.8% -1.5% -25.7% -1.8% 47.2% 6.9% 19.5% 24.2% 23366.7% 1.54 1.24 Proctor & Gamble Co. (NYSE:PG) 11.9 18.21 -0.4% 1.1% 27.9% 3.0% 50.2% 15.5% 23.6% 10.3% 17.5% 0.44 0.40 Mean 10.5 17.7 2.1% 2.4% 4.9% 1.9% 53.1% 8.8% 18.0% 16.0% 3363.9% 0.9 0.7 Median 10.7 18.2 1.0% 2.6% 5.8% 2.0% 50.3% 8.3% 19.0% 11.2% 17.5% 0.46 0.46 The Estee Lauder Companies 12.3 22.65 5.7% 6.0% 10.4% 15.8% 79.8% 9.3% 18.1% 22.5% 32.3% 1.33 1.28 Target Multiple 13 NTM P/E NTM EBITDA 1940.78 Target Multiple 23.65 Target EV 25230.105 NTM EPS 2.75 Less: Implied Share Price 65.04 Debt 1356.1 Current Price 63.31 Preferred Stock 0 Premium 1.73 Minority Interest 0 2.7% Plus: Cash and Equivalents 1347.7 Equity Value 25221.705 Shares Outstanding 386.6 Implied Share Price 65.24 Current Price 63.31 Premium/ 1.93 3.0%
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