State Formation and Collapse

Not really while the relationship between poverty and

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Unformatted text preview: - laitin, collier, sambanis) But how do you identify causality? Suppose there are certain phenomena outside of the control of governments that can cause poverty (natural disasters, weather patterns) but that does not DIRECTLY cause state failure (except through the impoverishment of the population) Instrumental variable We could then control or the effect of this and see how … SLIDES Rainfall and conflict, Miguel, satyanath use this instrumental variables approach Recall: an instrument is a factor correlated with the determinant but not directly with the outcome Rainfall in Africa is strongly related to growth and therefore poverty (strong relationship between droughts and conflict) They ten to lead to recessions in Africa, which tend to increase the likelihood of conflict Obviously, growth fluctuations do not cause rainfall variations And rainfall cannot cause violence except through the impoverishment of citizens THIS ALLWOS THEM TO CONCLUDE THAT POVERTY CAUSES STATE FAILURE Is this the whole story? Not really… while the relationship between poverty and violence at the country level is strong, there seems to be no relationship at the household/individual level The poorest households or persons are not the ones that are the most likely to participate in acts of violence against the states In fact, it is the middle classes that are more likely to join rebel groups or s...
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