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Some argue that policy is largely irrelevant is it

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Unformatted text preview: ransition, all regions in the world are seeing a drop in TFR. Decline in average number of children also evident The demographic transition in today’s developing countries is very different: What took Britain 250 years and the US 100 years to achieve, took Iran 10 years, Morocco 20 years, Zimbabwe 20 years to get birth rate decline (down to 3) The fall in death rates has taken place in a quicker and more abrupt way: Attained by importing medical technology The fall in the death rate is not necessarily being matched by increases in: Public health and sanitation services Productive opportunities in the labor force Education/understanding of disease environments We don’t have a high tolerance for high death rates anymore in this world Force birth rate level down via direct or indirect policy ROLE OF POLICY: Policies to tweak the number of kids people have Some argue that policy is largely irrelevant: is it all driven by income? Gapminder As countries get richer, fertility rate just falls, governments should not interfere. These guys are talking about in the long- run Life expectancy is also related to income? Sure it does, but IN THE LONG- RUN In the short- run, there are some countries with the same level of income but that are really different Spectrum of policies: Coercive policies (family planning programs) OR voluntary grassroots health campaigns (Iran, whatever births occur are healthy ones) Three groups of countries: FP touted as a “solution” to fast population growth FP promoted for “other” reasons: No policy: sub- saharan Africa (some cultures prohibit contraceptives) Sen on China’s One- Child Policy: Argues that the one- child policy had very little to do with the sharp decli...
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