A1t emphasis on nonfossil energy sources a2

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Unformatted text preview: mate change indicators: extreme weather events ⚈  IPCC AR4 WGII 2007, “…confidence has increased that some weather events and extremes will become more frequent, more widespread and/or more intense during the 21st century…” Drought July 31, 2003 Floods Precipitation Cyclones/storms Heat waves Warming scenarios  ­ IPCC ⚈  A1: globaliza<on, emphasis on human wealth   Subsets: •  A1FI  ­ An emphasis on fossil ­fuels. •  A1B  ­ A balanced emphasis on all energy sources. •  A1T  ­ Emphasis on non ­fossil energy sources. ⚈  A2: regionaliza<on, emphasis on human wealth ⚈  B1: globaliza<on, emphasis on sustainability and equity ⚈  B2: regionaliza<on, emphasis on sustainability and equity future Variations in the Earth’s surface temperature – past, present… 7.0 Global Departures (°C) from the 1961-1990 average Northern hemisphere 5.8° 6.0 Scenario models envelope 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 Range from scenario models Instrumental data (AD 1902-1999) Reconstruction (AD 1000-1980) Reconstruction (40-year smoothed) 1.0 Scenarios A1B A1T A1FI A2 B1 B2 IS92a 0.0 -1.0 1100 From IPCC TAR 2001 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 Year 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 1.4° Projec<ons of surface temperatures (rela<ve to 1980 ­1999) Emission scenario: B1 A1B A2 From IPCC AR4 WG1 Tech Summary 2007 Forests/forestry versus climate change Climate change mi<ga<on: forestry 3.2 ± 0.1 GtC/yr Airborne fraction Atmosphere ⚈  Less than half of human emissions stay in atmosphere Biosphere ⚈  Mitigation = reduced 6.4 ± 0.4 1.6 ± 0.9 2.6 ± 0.1 Fossil fuel Land-use change Land uptake (esp. forests) Reduce emissions Data from IPCC AR4 WG1 2007 2.2 ± 0.4 Ocean uptake Increase sinks emissions and/or increased sinks ⚈  Forests/forestry can have significant impacts on future CO2 concentrations Forests and carbon Sweden: cyclone Gudrun (2005) ⚈  Global fossil carbon emissions ~ 7 Gt/yr ⚈  Equivalent to: o  o  28 billion m3 of wood (28,000 × Gudrun) half of the biomass C in Canada’s managed forest Forests and mi<ga<on ⚈  ⚈  Forests and forestry cannot solve the problem of fossil C emissions, but they can contribute to the solu<on Reduced deforesta<on, increased afforesta<on could more than offset global carbon emissions from the transporta<on sector (Stern 2006) Mi<ga<on op<ons in the forest sector ⚈  Increase (or maintain) forest area ⚈  Increase carbon density ⚈  Increase stored C in products ⚈  Reduce fossil emissions through product subs<tu<on and bioenergy Warming will con<nue even with mi<ga<on 1st assessment report 2nd assessment report 3rd assessment report Observed ⚈  Con<nued warming Constant from 2000 Emissions scenarios From IPCC AR4 WG1 Tech Summary 2007 even with emissions held at 2000 levels ⚈  Adapta<on is required BC’s adapta<on strategy: preparing for climate change (see: www.env.gov.bc.ca/cas/adapta<on/) ⚈  Strategy 1: Build a strong founda<on of knowledge   Engage climate science   Build robust observa<on networks   Develop adapta<on planning tools   Knowledge transfer and outreach ac<vi<es ⚈  Strategy 2: Make adapta<on part of gov’t business     Consider adapta<on in planning Implement through a coordinated approach ⚈  Strategy 3: Assess risks and implement priority adapta<on ac<ons in sectors   Assess risks and implement ac<ons Ques<ons to review: ⚈  What is the IPCC, and what is its mission? ⚈  What are the three main greenhouse gases, and which causes the most warming? ⚈  Name 3 indicators of global climate change. ⚈  Give 3 ways that the forest sector can help mi<gate climate change. ⚈  What are the 3 strategies currently employed by the BC government to adapt to climate change?...
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This document was uploaded on 03/27/2014 for the course CONS 101 at University of British Columbia.

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