Lecture 2 climate change

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Unformatted text preview: Global climate change ⚈  Lecture outline/goals:         Climate change – a brief overview Some global indicators Climate change mi<ga<on •  poten<al for Carbon sequestra<on in forests Adap<ng to climate change 1 Arrhenius, S. 1896. On the influence of carbonic acid in the air upon the temperature of the ground. Philosophical Magazine 41, 237 ⚈  Increased CO2 in the air will increase ground temperatures ⚈  Stronger influence near the poles than near the equator ⚈  Stronger impact in the northern hemisphere ⚈  Diminished difference in temperature between day and night Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ⚈  Scien<fic body created in 1988 upon the request of member governments ⚈  Endorsed by the United Na<ons ⚈  Mission: provide comprehensive scien<fic assessments about the risk of climate change caused by human ac<vity, its poten<al consequences, and possible op<ons for adap<ng to these consequences or mi<ga<ng the effects Voluntary contribu<ons from thousands of scien<sts Interna<onally accepted authority on climate change Relies on consensus Nobel Peace Prize 2007   ⚈  ⚈  ⚈  ⚈  Changes in atmospheric GHG’s over the past 20,000 years Mean ppm 1 320 0 280 240 -1 200 -2 0.1 250 -0.1 -0.2 200 -0.3 -15000 -10000 -5000 0 0.4 1500 0.2 1000 0 500 Radiative forcing (Wm-2) Time (years bp) C H4 Mean ppb N 2O 0 -20000 2000 -0.2 -0.4 -20000 300 Radiative forcing (Wm-2) CO2 Mean ppb 360 Radiative forcing (Wm-2) 400 -15000 -10000 -5000 Time (years bp) From IPCC AR4 WG1 Tech Summary 2007 0 Range over past 650,000 years ⚈  The debate is over… ⚈  GHG concentra<ons beyond range of natural variability ⚈  CO2 = greatest radia<ve forcing Historic CO2 levels ⚈  Fluctua<ons between glacia<ons ⚈  Current levels highest in last 420,000 yrs, possibly the last 20 million yrs ⚈  Projected levels 550 – 950 ppm by 2100 350 400 340 Human perturbation 330 350 320 3...
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  • Fall '13
  • Carroll
  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, WG1 Tech Summary, IPCC AR4 WG1, AR4 WG1 Tech

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