lecture-10 - CPSC 491 Lecture Notes Fall 2013 1 Overview...

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CPSC 491 Lecture Notes Fall 2013 1 Overview Topics Estimation (cont.) Planning Reading Ch 3 Key Ideas Estimate, Target, Committment “Accuracy” of estimates Tasks (and improving story estimates) Basic Planning Basic Gannt Charts 1
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2 Estimates (cont.) Estimate a prediction of how long a project will take at a certain cost, scope, and quality level Target a form of external (business) objective “We need version 2.1 ready for a tradeshow in May” “We need the release before the holiday sales cycle” Commitment a promise to deliver product by a specific date also can include agree to a specific scope, cost, and quality When things go wrong ... Commitments vs. estimates may: be the same ... or be more aggressive or conservative the commitment though should be based on the estimate Problems arise when there is a large gap between the target (or commitment) and the actual effort needed to complete the project ideally within 20% of each other (to adjust scope, team size, schedule) 2
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We want estimates that we are confident are accurate “The process is called estimation, not exactimation” (Phillip Armour) Q: How confident are you in your user-story estimates? Estimates often “ single-point ” numbers of developer-days (or hours) ... Suggests high accuracy (and confidence) Estimates have inherent uncertainty More natural to express as ranges and/or using confidence levels (prob- abilities) Try to aim for “90% confidence” in our estimates ...
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