Information Flow

# F3260 he missing ten expected payoff values underlined

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Unformatted text preview: 80 960 1620 (g). Based on the probabilities given above, what is the expected 3288=\$312EMV = 3288 400 500 0 260 920 500 1100 200 0 660 600 1300 400 200 0 (f).What is the maximum average amount Pickens pays for the seismic test, i.e., the expected value of the seismic test? EVSI (seismic test)= (0.601+0.050)- 0.52=\$0.131 (millions) (g). Without doing any test, if someone has a crystal ball that predicts 100% sure the drill will have an average finding, what is the value of this information (VPI)? V=.10(4.24)+.40(1.04)+.5(.64)=0.52M. VPI=1.04-0.52=0.52M EMV = 3of p erfect information (EVPI) if there is perfect value 288 information? EVwPI=.1(3500)+.3(3200)+.4(3600)+.2(4200)=3590. EMV(600)= 3260 EVPI=EVwPI- EMV=3590- 3288=\$302EMV(600)= 3260 4.(a). Based on above posterior analysis for geologic test, what is probability of...
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