05 and 001 level of significance 216 appendix 8

Info iconThis preview shows page 1. Sign up to view the full content.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
This is the end of the preview. Sign up to access the rest of the document.

Unformatted text preview: coxon Rank Sum Test 217 Bibliography 218 vi LIST OF FIGURES PAGE 3.1 Worldwide giant fields 42 3.2 Campbell’s prediction of world oil production after 1996 43 3.3 Distribution of remaining (Yet-to-Produce) oil (in Billions of Bbls) by country 3.4 44 Distribution of remaining (Yet-to-Produce) oil (in Billions of Bbls) by region 44 3.6 Actual spot Brent oil price over time 46 3.7 The average size of U.K. fields by discovery year 48 3.8 Discoveries by field-size class in the North Sea 49 3.9 Worldwide operating costs 50 5.1 The upstream oil and gas industry: a multi-stage decision process 75 5.2 Cumulative cash position curve 5.3 76 Typical spider diagram 79 5.4 An example of a decision tree 82 5.5 A preference curve 88 5.6 Typical preference curves 89 5.7 Analysis using EMV 92 5.8 Test results eliminated 93 5.9 The decision-maker’s preference curve 93 5.10 Analysis using preferences 94 5.11 Reducing risk through diversification 106 5.12 A 9-step approach to investment appraisal in the upstream oil and gas industry 119 vii 5.13 Choke model 124 6.1 A model of current practice 155 7.1 A decision tree 8.1 166 The relationship between decision analysis and behavioural decision theory 8.2 192 Best practices in organisations’ use of decision analysis 193 LIST OF TABLES PAGE 2.1 Conceptualisations of risk and uncertainty 12 5.1 Discounted cash flow concept 78 5.2 Hypothetical field data 99 5.3 Hypothetical field data for Monte Carlo simulation 5.4 Results from the Monte Carlo simulation 99 100 5.5 Base value data and probability distribution assigned to each of the reservoir parameters 104 5.6 Table of the output generated using the base value data and input distributions specified in table 5.5. 104 5.7 Safe and risky projects 109 5.8 All possible outcomes of investing 50% in each project 110 5.9 The similarities between a stock call option and undeveloped reserves 115 6.1 Organisations’ use of decision analysis 150 7.1 Ranking of companies by their use of decision analysis techniques and concepts 168 7.2 Ranking of companies by performance criteria 174 7.3 Spearman correlation coefficients between performance variables and use of decision analysis 177 viii Chapter One Introduction 1 1.1 INTRODUCTION The aim of this chapter is to introduce the research project and to outline the research themes that guide the study. The research presented in this thesis is rooted within the existing decision theory and oil industry literatures. It contributes to one of the current debates in these literatures by providing evidence that in the operators in the U.K. upstream oil and gas industry there is a link between the use of decision analysis in investment appraisal decision-making by organisations and good business performance. 1.2 BACKGROUND TO THE THESIS Research into decision-making has become increasingly popular over the last forty years, and many published studies now exist (for example, Ford and Gioia, 2000; Gunn, 2000; Ekenberg, 2000; Milne and Chan; 1999; Nutt, 1999, 1997 and 1993; Burke and Miller, 1999; Papadakis, 1998; Dean and Sharfman, 1996; Quinn, 1980; Mintzberg et al., 1976; Cyert and March, 1963). Whilst, these studies are useful for providing broad insights into the field of decision-making, very few have investi...
View Full Document

This document was uploaded on 03/30/2014.

Ask a homework question - tutors are online