Macmillan(1)

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Unformatted text preview: ons of decision analysis, the limitations 180 of the current study and areas for future research will be discussed in the following chapter. 181 Chapter 8 Conclusion: between “extinction by instinct” and “paralysis by analysis” 182 8.1 INTRODUCTION This chapter will draw on those that precede it to answer the research questions posed in the first chapter of this thesis. It will demonstrate how, through the utilisation of qualitative methods and statistical analysis, the current study has produced research that has made a valuable contribution firstly, to the decision theory and oil and gas industry literatures and secondly, to oil industry practitioners. By drawing on the insights gained through the conduct of the literature review, research interviews and data analysis stages of the current study, the chapter begins by answering each of the three research questions in turn. The main conclusions of the research are then contextualised in the decision theory and oil industry literatures. This highlights how the research has contributed to one of the current debates in these literatures by providing evidence of a link between the use of decision analysis in investment appraisal decision-making and good organisational performance. Implications of the study and recommendations to practitioners follow. The chapter concludes by identifying directions for future research. 8.2 THE RESEARCH QUESTIONS REVISITED In Chapter 1 the three research questions that the current study aimed to examine were proposed. Focussing on each question in turn in this section these questions and their motivation will be examined. Attention will be concentrated on how, through the utlisation of the combination of qualitative methods and statistical analysis, the research presented in this thesis can be used to answer these questions. The first research question aimed to establish which of the decision analysis techniques presented in the decision theory and industry literatures, are the most appropriate for upstream oil and gas companies to utilise in their investment decisionmaking. This question was motivated by the recognition that there are many decision analysis techniques and concepts presented in the decision theory and industry literatures. Some of these have been applied to the upstream in the industry literature since the early 1960s. A few have only recently began to attract attention. Still others 183 have yet to be considered in the context of the upstream. However, previously in the decision theory and industry literatures, authors had tended to describe the application of a single technique to either a real or hypothetical decision situation (Hammond, 1967; Swalm, 1966). Whilst such accounts provide useful insights, they also implied that using particular decision analysis technique in isolation, would provide the decision-maker with best possible perception of the risk and uncertainty associated with a decision. Yet, as indicated in Chapter 5, in reality, each tool has limi...
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This document was uploaded on 03/30/2014.

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