Interviewee theres none n1 it is important to realise

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Unformatted text preview: l the techniques identified in Chapter 5 and use, at least partially, most of them. Some use very few. This is well illustrated by the following respondents: “I don’t think that I can say we use any of those techniques” (A); and, “Decision analysis is not a common thing in this company. It’s not a standard that we all have to do for each decision.” (B) The y-axis of the model presented in this section indicates the proportion of investment decisions that are made in each company using decision analysis techniques. Some organisations do not use decision analysis at all even on the most basic investment decisions to which the techniques have been applied in the literature for many years: “We have no structured, scientific, way of evaluating [prospects]” (A). Others appear to use decision analysis on a limited number of decisions: “The drill-no drill type decision I would say we use decision analysis techniques a lot for. I think when you are talking about real strategic decisions, like do I make this acquisition, I think you are much further up the qualitative end of things” (K) In other companies, decision analysis is much more commonly used. As the following exchange between the researcher and one of the interviewees from company N indicates: 153 Interviewer: “On what kind of decisions does your organisation use decision analysis techniques?” Interviewee: “Well, really, just about everything we do from decisions about drilling prospects through to development decisions and decisions about production.” Interviewer: “On what kind of decisions does your organisation not use decision analysis techniques?” Interviewee: “There’s none.” (N1) It is important to realise that on the y-axis that the proportion does not indicate a strict dualism. Judgement and individual interpretation, gap filling in the absence of complete information, and assumptions are required even when many tools are used: “You dip into that side and you come back and do some more numbers and then you dip back into that side and I think that is the way it has to go because you cannot prove mathematically that there are 15 million barrels in the ground in a discovery. You have to interpret the information you have got. And that interpretation eventually comes down to a judgement of somebody which is fair and square on this side…Because you keep asking questions and ultimately you get down to what somebody’s view is – somebody’s interpretation of a reservoir model or whatever, to which you can say no more than that is my interpretation, that is my feeling, my view of what the thing looks like.” (N1); and, “We like to think the thing is structured. We like to think there’s an ordered trail of how we got to the decision. And we like to think, or some people like to think, they are completely quantifiable. But I think it is hard to get something that is absolutely hard quantifiable, because we are dealing with a subjective process. Because we are don’t know all the answers – we don’t even have all the questions.” (D) Moreover, in all...
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