Lastly using statistical analysis it provides

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Unformatted text preview: of capital investment decisionmaking. Lastly, using statistical analysis, it provides evidence that there is an association between the use of decision analysis in investment decision-making by companies and good organisational performance in the upstream oil and gas industry. Such research not only contributes to the current theoretical debate in the oil industry and decision theory literatures but also provides valuable insights to practitioners. iii CONTENTS PAGE Declaration i Acknowledgements ii Abstract iii List of figures vii List of tables viii Chapter 1: Introduction 1 1.1 Introduction 2 1.2 Background to the thesis 2 1.3 Research questions 4 1.4 Outline of thesis 8 Chapter 2: Literature Review 10 2.1 Introduction 11 2.2 Risk and uncertainty 11 2.3 Current practice in investment appraisal decision-making 18 2.4 The evolution of decision theory 20 2.5 Decision analysis and organisational performance 31 2.6 Conclusion 37 Chapter 3: The Oil Industry in the U.K. 39 3.1 Introduction 40 3.2 Current challenges in the global oil industry 40 3.3 The oil industry in the U.K. 47 3.4 Investment appraisal decision-making in the oil industry 52 3.5 Conclusion 54 iv Chapter 4: Methodology 55 4.1 Introduction 56 4.2 Adopting an appropriate methodological framework 57 4.3 Evaluating the effectiveness of the research methodology 69 4.4 Conclusion 71 Chapter 5: Current capability in investment appraisal in the upstream oil and gas industry 72 5.1 Introduction 73 5.2 The concepts of expected monetary value and decision tree analysis 74 5.3 Preference theory 86 5.4 Risk analysis 98 5.5 Portfolio theory 105 5.6 Option theory 111 5.7 Current capability 118 5.8 Conclusion 125 Chapter 6: Current practice in investment appraisal in the upstream oil and gas industry 126 6.1 Introduction 127 6.2 The use of decision analysis by organisations 128 6.3 The investment appraisal decision-making process 140 6.4 A model of current practice 152 6.5 Conclusion 155 Chapter 7: The relationship between the use of decision analysis in investment appraisal decision-making and business success: a non-parametric analysis 157 v 7.1 Introduction 158 7.2 The type of study 159 7.3 Ranking companies by use of decision analysis tools and concepts 161 7.4 Ranking companies by organisational performance 169 7.5 Proposing the hypotheses and selecting the statistical tests 175 7.6 Results 177 7.7 Discussion 179 7.8 Conclusion 180 Chapter 8: Conclusion: between “extinction by instinct” and “paralysis by analysis” 182 8.1 Introduction 183 8.2 The research questions revisited 183 8.3 Theoretical contribution 189 8.4 Implications of the study to practitioners 193 8.5 Future research 194 8.6 Conclusion 196 Appendix 1: Interview Schedule 199 Appendix 2: Presentations and Papers 206 Appendix 3: The Spearman Correlation Test 208 Appendix 4: The Kruskal Wallis and Wilcoxon Rank Sum tests 209 Appendix 5: Critical values of ρ for Spearman tests 214 Appendix 6: Critical Values of K for Kruskal Wallis test with 3 independent samples 215 Appendix 7: Critical Values of Chi-Square at the 0.05 and 0.01 level of significance 216 Appendix 8: Critical Values of S for the Wil...
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This document was uploaded on 03/30/2014.

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