Newendorp 1996 p7 observes in his book on decision

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Unformatted text preview: stand probabilities and communicate probabilistically. • Good communication between the departments compiling the analysis. • Motivation to conduct decision analysis is high. • Decision analysis perceived to be a useful tool for quantifying risk and uncertainty. • Each prospect is subjected to peer-review. • Decision analysis is part of the organisation’s culture. • Employees trust the results of the analysis. • Every employee is required to attend training in decision analysis. • Management are committed to decision analysis. • Management are involved in generating the analysis. Figure 8.2: Best practices in organisations’ use of decision analysis 193 By providing evidence that decision analysis contributes positively to organisational performance, the current study ought to promote interest in decision analysis tools and concepts. This should result in more organisations using decision analysis, and some companies using the more sophisticated decision analysis techniques and ideas. Clearly then the research presented in this thesis ought to be seen as a vehicle for narrowing the gap between current practice and current capability in the use of decision analysis by the upstream oil and gas industry. However, this will only occur if, simultaneously, decision-makers recognise that decision analysis is not a threat, that it does not dictate answers, nor does it usurp decision-makers and remove choice and neither could it ever aspire to do so. Numerous decision analysts (for example, French, 1989; Keeney and Raffia, 1976) stress that decision analysis is not a means whereby the decision-maker is replaced by an automatic procedure. Newendorp (1996 p7) observes in his book on decision analysis that: “We will unfortunately not be able to develop a single “handy-dandy” formula which will cure all the evaluation problems relating to capital investment decisions.” The basic presumption of decision analysis is not to replace the decision-maker’s intuition, to relieve him or her of the obligations in facing the problem, or to be, worst of all, a competitor to the decision-maker’s personal style of analysis, but to complement, augment, and generally work alongside the decision-maker in exemplifying the nature of the problem (Bunn, 1984 p8). Keeney (1982) commented “Decision analysis will not solve a decision problem, nor is it intended to. Its purpose is to produce insight and promote creativity to help decision-makers make better decisions.” (Goodwin and Wright, 1991 p4) Yet, currently decision-makers, in the upstream, at least, appear to fear that implementation of decision analysis, will be accompanied by a diminishing role for decision-makers. Clearly, decision-makers need to be educated in the conception of decision-analysis. Only then will organisations fully adopt decision analysis. 8.5 FUTURE RESEARCH Whilst conducting the research underpinning this thesis, one of the most difficult tasks for the researcher was to recognise that every interesting issue uncovered could 194 not...
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