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Unformatted text preview: be explored. As such, whilst contributing to the theoretical debate and providing
useful advice to practitioners, the current study has also highlighted several areas for
future research. These will be discussed in this section.
Firstly, as highlighted in Chapter 5, there is a need for several studies to investigate
the issues surrounding Monte Carlo analysis. One study needs to establish the shape
of the input distributions that ought to be used to represent the reservoir parameters, in
a field of specified lithology and depth, in a Monte Carlo simulation to generate an
estimate of the recoverable reserves. A further study is required to explore the nature
of the dependencies between these variables. The data necessary for such a study is
due to be published next year by the Geological Society in a book titled Oil and Gas
fields of the United Kingdom Continental Shelf edited by Jon Gluyas et al.. The need
for these studies is particularly pertinent since most companies are using Monte Carlo
analysis to generate estimates of recoverable reserves at the prospect level. Similar
studies also need to be conducted to investigate these issues for economic variables.
However, the economic data that are necessary for such research are regarded by most
companies to be strictly confidential. Consequently, such research is unlikely to be
undertaken in the near future.
Further work is also needed to understand the complexities of option theory and its
application to the upstream. The growing interest from the industry should ensure
that this occurs. The researcher expects to see more companies using the technique
on individual investment appraisal cases in the next couple of years. Software companies such as Merak are interested in integrating the technique into their existing
packages and this should aid its introduction to the industry.
One of the most interesting areas that the researcher had to acknowledge was beyond
the scope of this thesis were issues of tacit knowledge and the extent to which
organisations and decisions are dependent upon it, and decision-makers reliance on
gut feelings and experience. Firstly, understanding such issues, and secondly, researching them, requires spet skills in areas, for example, such as
organisational psychology. Following similar observations, in March 1999 the Departments of Management Studies and Economics at the University of Aberdeen 195 identified a researcher with the appropriate background to undertake such research.
This Ph.D. is due for completion in March 2002.
Future research should concentrate on further examination of the link between use of
decision analysis and organisational performance. The current study focussed on
those oil companies active on the UKCS, a comparative study could be undertaken in
companies active in other areas. Following presentation of a paper based on Chapter
7 of this thesis at a recent Society of Petroleum Engineers conference in Japan, JNOC
(Japanese National Oil Company) are considering conducting a similar study in Japan.
The study could also be replicated in other industries with a similar high risk/high
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This document was uploaded on 03/30/2014.
- Summer '14
- The Land