macmillan (1) - Risk Uncertainty and Investment...

Info iconThis preview shows pages 1–5. Sign up to view the full content.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
Risk, Uncertainty and Investment Decision- Making in the Upstream Oil and Gas Industry Fiona Macmillan MA Hons (University of Aberdeen) October 2000 A thesis presented for the degree of Ph.D. at the University of Aberdeen
Background image of page 1

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
DECLARATION This thesis, and the research underpinning it, is entirely my own work. It has not been submitted in any previous application for a degree. All quotations in the thesis have been distinguished by quotation marks, and the sources of information specifically acknowledged. Signed:…………………………………………. . i
Background image of page 2
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Whilst this thesis is entirely my own work, many others have contributed to it and shaped the end result in their own unique way and I would like to take this opportunity to recognise them. First, thanks must go to my sponsor, CSIRO Australia (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation), and supervisors for their enthusiasm, patience and commitment, especially Professor Graeme Simpson, whose confidence in me and in the value of my study never wavered even when I doubted it myself. Second, I would like to acknowledge the respondents and the companies that they represented. For their time, honesty and encouragement I am extremely grateful. Special thanks must go to Steven McColl of Conoco, Jon Gluyas of Lasmo, Pat Mackintosh of DNV (Det Norske Veritas) and Gillian Doyle of Wood Mackenzie for all their assistance. Last and most importantly, I would like to thank my husband, Mike, my parents and my friends - especially Gill, Vanessa and Natalie, for their love, support and unshakeable belief in me and in all that I do. Without them, there would be no thesis. ii
Background image of page 3

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
ABSTRACT The research presented in this thesis is rooted within the existing decision theory and oil industry literatures. It contributes to one of the current debates in these literatures by providing evidence that in the operators in the U.K. upstream oil and gas industry there is a link between the use of decision analysis in investment appraisal decision- making by organisations and good business performance. It is commonly acknowledged that decision analysis is not as widely used by organisations as was predicted at its conception (for example, Schuyler, 1997). One reason for this is that no study to date has shown that use of decision analysis techniques and concepts can actually help individuals or organisations to fulfil their objectives. Despite over four decades of research undertaken developing decision analysis tools, understanding the behavioural and psychological aspects of decision- making, and applying decision analysis in practice, no research has been able to show conclusively what works and what does not (Clemen, 1999). The current study begins to fill this gap by using qualitative methods to establish the following. Firstly, the research identifies which decision analysis techniques are applicable for investment decision-making in the oil industry, and thereby produces a description of current capability. Secondly, the study ascertains which decision
Background image of page 4
Image of page 5
This is the end of the preview. Sign up to access the rest of the document.

{[ snackBarMessage ]}

Page1 / 250

macmillan (1) - Risk Uncertainty and Investment...

This preview shows document pages 1 - 5. Sign up to view the full document.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
Ask a homework question - tutors are online