Binomial poisson and markov multi state models 1830

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Unformatted text preview: isson models Binomial model Discussion 1 Binomial model Without censoring With censoring The actuarial estimate Central exposed to risk Discussion 2 Poisson model Introduction Maximum Likelihood Estimation Link to 2-state Markov models 3 Discussion: Binomial, Poisson and Markov multi-state models 18/30 Actuarial Statistics – Module 6: Parametric models: Binomial and Poisson models Binomial model Discussion Discussion simple model estimates qx (but no more) approximation to a “method of moments” estimator: the actuarial estimate the actuarial estimate avoids numerical solution of equations however, the actuarial estimate may not necessarily be simpler than estimates based on multiple state model: when the exposure data are of census type, the computation of the initial exposed to risk is very complicated. does not generalize easily to settings with more than one decrement models 18/30 Actuarial Statistics – Module 6: Parametric models: Binomial and Poisson models Poisson model Introduction 1 Binomial model Without censoring With censoring The actuarial estimate Central exposed to risk Discussion 2 Poisson model Introduction Maximum Likelihood Estimation Link to 2-state Markov models 3 Discussion: Binomial, Poisson and Markov multi-state models 19/30 Actuarial Statistics – Module 6: Parametric models: Binomial and Poisson models Poisson model Introduction Assume We observe N individuals over a year of age We assume a constant force of mortality µ over the observed...
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This document was uploaded on 04/03/2014.

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