4QA3 F12 Week 5 Lecture Notes

37 a forecast is deemed to perform adequately

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Unformatted text preview: Demand (1000’s Per Quarter) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2004 12.6 8.6 6.3 17.5 2005 14.1 10.3 7.5 18.2 2006 15.3 10.6 8.1 19.6 D = 12.39 Normalized Demand Q2 Q3 Year 2004 1.02 0.69 0.51 1.41 2005 1.14 0.83 0.61 1.47 2006 1.23 0.86 0.65 1.58 Average 4QA3 F12 Q1 Q4 1.13 0.80 0.59 1.49 33 ●  ●  To remove seasonality from a series, divide each observation in the series by the appropriate seasonal factor. The resulting series will have no seasonality and may then be predicted using an appropriate method. Once a forecast is made on the deseasonalized series, one multiplies that forecast by the appropriate seasonal factor ( reseasonalizes ) to obtain a forecast for the original series. Demand Seasonal Deseasonalized Factor Demand 1.13 12.48 10.3 0.80 12.98 7.5 0.59 12.73 18.2 1.49 12.23 15.3 1.13 13.54 10.6 0.80 13.3...
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This document was uploaded on 04/01/2014.

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