4QA3 F12 Week 5 Lecture Notes

dt be the observed values of the series

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Unformatted text preview: nd Demand Patterns Series •  Moving Average •  Regression •  Exponential Smoothing •  Holt’s Method Demand =Patterns Demand Patterns D µ +ε t t ( Methods for Seasonal- Trend Series •  Seasonal Decomposition Using Moving Averages •  Winter’s Method ) Dt = µ + Gt + εt Dt = µ Notation Co +Notation C Gt ct + εt ( ) Let 1, , 2, .n Let DD1DD2., . . DD predicted (dem predicted (dema period assume period t, t, assum Let F + τ f forec Let Ft, tt,+t τ ==oreca period t τ whe period t ++ τ wh 4QA3 F12 11 1 ●  Let D1 , D2 , . . . Dt , . . . be the observed values of the series to be predicted (demand) during periods 1, 2, …, t, …. If we are making a forecast in period t, assume we have observed Dt , Dt- 1,…. ●  Let Ft − τ, t be the forecast made in period t – τ for the demand in period t where τ = 1, 2, 3, …. ●  Then, Ft −1, t is the forecast made in t – 1 for t and Ft, t+1 is the forecast made in t for t + 1. ●  Use shorthand notation Ft = Ft − 1, t (one step ahead). Thu...
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