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4QA3 F12 Week 5 Lecture Notes

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Unformatted text preview: 6 8.1 0.59 13.75 19.6 4QA3 F12 14.1 1.49 13.18 34 Units Ft,t+ τ= (St + τ Gt) ct+τ Forecast Trend Observed data Seasonal factor = ct Trend/Slope = G Intercept/Level/Base = S 4QA3 F12 Time 35 ●  Assume there are N periods in the seasonal cycle: ( ) Ft ,t+ τ = St + τ Gt ct+τ − N ( ) ( )( G = β ( S − S ) + (1 − β ) G c = γ ( D S ) + (1 − γ ) c St = α Dt ct − N + 1 − α St −1 + Gt −1 t t t t t −1 t ) t −1 t−N where γ is the smoothing constant for the seasonal factor. ●  To initialize the method, one can lit a linear regression to the baseline data to obtain S0 and G0. c- N+1 , c- N+1 , ... , c0 can be obtained using simple method discussed earlier. 4QA3 F12 36 Year Quarter Demand Intercept Trend Seasonal Factor Forecast t Dt St Gt Ct- N Ft 4QA3 F12 2005 1 2 3 4 2006 5 6 7 8 2007 9 10 11 12 2008 13 14 12.6 8.6 6.3 17.5 14.1 10.3 7.5 18.2 15.3 10.6 8.1 19.6 - - 10.10 10.59 10.91 11.15 11.55 12.01 12.47 12.83 13.00 13.37 13.62...
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