4QA3 F12 Week 5 Lecture Notes

4QA3 F12 Week 5 Lecture Notes

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Unformatted text preview: ) i Ft = ∑α 1 − α Dt −i−1 i =0 ●  Hence the method applies a set of exponentially declining weights to all past data. It is easy to show that the sum of the weights is exactly one. 4QA3 F12 21 Source: Nahmias (2009) Effect of α 4QA3 F12 22 Period Month Demand 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb 37 40 41 37 45 50 43 47 56 52 55 54 – – Forecast, Ft (α = 0.3) (α = 0.5) 4QA3 F12 37 37 37.90 38.83 38.28 40.29 43.20 43.14 44.30 47.81 49.06 50.84 51.79 ? 37 37 38.50 39.75 38.37 41.68 45.84 44.42 45.71 50.85 51.42 53.21 53.61 ? 23 70 – Actual 60 – α = 0.50 Orders 50 – 40 – α = 0.30 30 – 20 – 10 – 0 – | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 Month 4QA3 F12 24 ●  Similarities o  Both methods are...
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This document was uploaded on 04/01/2014.

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