4QA3 F12 Week 5 Lecture Notes

86 065 158 average 4qa3 f12 q1 q4 113 080

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Unformatted text preview: .30 41.13 40.02 43.02 47.31 46.36 47.38 52.34 53.36 55.17 55.55 - - - 1.7 1.75 1.96 1.92 1.01 1.61 2.41 1.40 1.29 2.39 1.98 1.93 1.46 - - - 36.7 38.60 41.25 43.04 41.03 44.62 49.72 47.77 48.67 54.72 55.34 57.10 57.01 ? ? 4QA3 F12 29 ●  Holt’s method is easier to update forecasts as new observations become available. ●  For most applications more stability is given to the slope estimate (β≤α). ●  The best approach to initiate the Holt’s method is to establish a set of initial periods as a baseline and use regression approach is to determine S0 and G0 using the baseline data. Effect of α and β 4QA3 F12 30 ste43901_ch03.qxd 5/1/01 12:32 PM Page 88 ●  A seasonal series is one that has pattern that repeats every N 88 PART TWO FORECASTING periods (length of the season). ●  FIGURE different models There are two 3–6 Demand Seasonality: the additive and of seasonality: m...
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