4QA3 F12 Week 5 Lecture Notes

A causal model is y f x 1 x 2 x n the

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Unformatted text preview: itative) •  •  •  •  4QA3 F12 Sales Force Composites Customer Surveys Jury of Executive Opinion The Delphi Method Objective (Quantitative) •  Causal Models •  Time Series Methods 7 ●  Let Y be the quantity to be forecasted and X1, X2, … , Xn be n variable that have predictive power for Y. A causal model is: ●  Y = f ( X 1 , X 2 , ..., X n ) The linear relationship is the most common functional form: Y = α 0 + α1 X 1 + α 2 X 2 + ... + α n X n Example 4QA3 F12 8 ●  ●  A time series is a sequence of data points measured at discrete points in time, usually equally spaced. Demand Patterns In time series methods, we attempt to isolate the following patterns in data: o  Trend o  Seasonality o  Cycles o  Randomness 4QA3 F12 Source: Nahmias (2009) 9 4QA3 F12 Source: Hyndman & Athanasopoulos 10 Methods for Stationary Series Methods for Tre...
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