4QA3 F12 Week 5 Lecture Notes

New forecast most recent observation 1 last forecast

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Unformatted text preview: n is the arithmetic average of the n most recent observations. ●  Fn ,the one- step- ahead forecast is given by: 4QA3 F12 1 1 t −1 Ft = Dt −1 + Dt −2 + ... + Dt −n = ∑ Di n n i =t − n ( ) 16 Month Orders Per Month 1. Jan 2. Feb 3. Mar 4. Apr 5. May 6. June 7. July 8. Aug 9. Sept 10. Oct 11. Nov 12. Dec 120 90 100 75 110 50 75 130 110 90 – – 4QA3 F12 Three- month Moving Average – – – 103.3 88.3 95.0 78.3 78.3 85.0 105.0 110.0 1 10 F11 = Di 3 i=8 90 + 110 + 130 F= = 110 ∑ 11 3 F10,12 = 110.0 17 150 – 125 – Orders 100 – 75 – 3- month MA 50 – Actual 25 – 0 – 4QA3 F12 | Jan | | Feb Mar | | | | Apr May June July Month | | Aug Sept | Oct | Nov 18 ●  Advantages of Moving A...
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