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Unformatted text preview: 98 90,000.00 80,000.00 70,000.00 60,000.00 50,000.00 40,000.00 30,000.00 20,000.00 10,000.00 0.00 Lower Limit Forecast --Holt WintersSelected Date Jul-2000 Aug-2000 Sep-2000 Oct-2000 Nov-2000 Dec-2000 Total Avg Max Min Monthly 71,165.50 48,642.38 48,316.11 44,014.73 41,169.35 43,088.31 296,396.39 49,399.40 71,165.50 41,169.35 Forecast Quarterly 128,272.39 296,396.39 5% - 95% Upper Limit 76,740.08 56,759.90 59,089.53 57,490.38 57,370.41 62,027.94 148,198.19 168,123.99 128,272.39 296,396.39 296,396.39 296,396.39 61,579.71 76,740.08 56,759.90 Annual 168,123.99 Summary Comments The forecast has an average error of The data has a standard deviation of The forecast exceeds the accuracy of a simple average by 5% - 95% Lower Limit 65,590.93 40,524.86 37,542.68 30,539.07 24,968.29 24,148.69 37,219.09 65,590.93 24,148.69 5.18% 12,121.71 88.35% Audit Trail - Summary Analysis Audit Trail - Historical Versus Fitted Analysis Series:MUSTARD Dates Apr-1998 May-1998 Jun-1998 Jul-1998 Aug-1998 Sep-1998 Oct-1998 Nov-1998 Dec-1998 Jan-1999 Feb-1999 Mar-1999 Apr-1999 May-1999 Jun-1999 Jul-1999 Aug-1999 Sep-1999 Oct-1999 Nov-1999 Dec-1999 Jan-2000 Feb-2000 Mar-2000 Apr-2000 May-2000 Jun-2000 Avg Max Min StDev Var Median Original Data 50,137.21 76,029.90 68,589.70 80,680.98 55,227.65 54,576.78 44,384.04 42,336.96 45,512.31 45,798.30 38,045.21 42,126.63 44,422.31 57,661.64 71,427.43 73,269.22 49,695.44 49,021.06 45,263.23 42,210.27 43,968.33 43,777.78 39,523.68 40,475.78 51,166.55 51,915.88 62,274.42 52,204.40 80,680.98 38,045.21 12,121.71 146,935,870.31 49,021.06 Fitted Data 49,365.58 73,597.92 69,509.44 79,905.90 54,852.81 53,927.03 44,328.44 41,746.90 44,301.68 44,308.43 37,050.63 40,303.07 45,748.68 69,124.74 62,083.27 73,467.75 50,324.88 49,668.81 40,420.71 38,796.86 41,911.36 42,325.83 35,321.86 39,378.51 42,186.35 57,391.46 68,255.86 51,466.84 79,905.90 35,321.86 13,067.27 170,753,426.17 45,748.68 Error Series % Change 771.63 2,431.98 51.64% -919.74 -9.79% 775.08 17.63% 374.85 -31.55% 649.75 -1.18% 55.60 -18.68% 590.05 -4.61% 1,210.63 7.50% 1,489.87 0.63% 994.58 -16.93% 1,823.56 10.73% -1,326.37 5.45% -11,463.10 29.80% 9,344.16 23.87% -198.53 2.58% -629.44 -32.17% -647.75 -1.36% 4,842.53 -7.67% 3,413.41 -6.74% 2,056.97 4.17% 1,451.95 -0.43% 4,201.82 -9.72% 1,097.27 2.41% 8,980.20 26.41% -5,475.58 1.46% -5,981.44 19.95% 737.55 2.44% 9,344.16 51.64% -11,463.10 -32.17% 4,067.78 18.54% 16,546,802.61 3.44% 775.08 1.05% Forecast % Change 49.09% -5.56% 14.96% -31.35% -1.69% -17.80% -5.82% 6.12% 0.02% -16.38% 8.78% 13.51% 51.10% -10.19% 18.34% -31.50% -1.30% -18.62% -4.02% 8.03% 0.99% -16.55% 11.48% 7.13% 36.04% 18.93% 3.22% 51.10% -31.50% 20.86% 4.35% 0.50% Cumulative Error Cumulative MAPE 771.63 1.54% 1,601.81 1.57% 761.29 1.20% 764.74 0.96% 686.76 0.79% 680.59 0.69% 591.31 0.60% 591.15 0.54% 659.98 0.52% 742.97 0.50% 765.84 0.47% 853.99 0.46% 686.27 0.45% -181.55 0.52% 453.50 0.54% 412.75 0.51% 351.44 0.48% 295.93 0.46% 535.23 0.46% 679.14 0.46% 744.75 0.45% 776.89 0.44% 92...
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This document was uploaded on 04/03/2014.

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