18 8835 405930 forecast statistics mean standard

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Unformatted text preview: Index 8 Index 9 Index 10 Index 11 Value 5.18% 88.35% 4,059.30 Forecast Statistics Mean Standard Deviation Value Holt Winters 0.05 0.88 0.26 Multiplicative Value 1.11 1.16 1.40 1.59 1.09 1.08 0.99 0.93 0.97 0.97 0.87 0.90 ForecastX Configuration Parameters Item Data range selected Time scale for data Periods to forecast Seasonal Length Replace Outliers Activated Replace Outliers Standard Deviations Replace Outliers Forecasting Technique Replace Missing Values Replace Missing Values (Lower Limit) Replace Missing Values (Upper Limit) Remove Leading Zeroes Remove Trailing Zeroes Use Holdback Evaluation Holdback Evaluation Period Apply Tracking Signal Apply Tracking Signal (Under Forecast Percentage) Apply Tracking Signal (Over Forecast Percentage) Forecast Method Selected Report Details Run Date: 3/5/2014 7:01:47 PM Author: Lucas Messenger Note: Value [c3t13.xlsx]Mustard Data'!$A$1:$B$28 Monthly 6.00 No No Yes No No No Holt Winters Value 52,204.40 12,121.71 Tracking Report Dates Apr-2005 May-2005 Jun-2005 Jul-2005 Aug-2005 Sep-2005 Oct-2005 Nov-2005 Dec-2005 Jan-2006 Feb-2006 Mar-2006 Apr-2006 May-2006 Jun-2006 Jul-2006 Aug-2006 Sep-2006 Oct-2006 Nov-2006 Dec-2006 Jan-2007 Feb-2007 Mar-2007 Apr-2007 May-2007 Jun-2007 Jul-2007 Aug-2007 Sep-2007 Oct-2007 Nov-2007 Dec-2007 Actual 68,589.70 Forecast Fitted Values 50,137.21 49,731.29 76,029.90 75,462.11 68,130.23 80,680.98 80,088.88 55,227.65 54,983.00 54,576.78 54,309.43 44,384.04 44,404.10 42,336.96 41,865.26 45,512.31 44,935.66 45,798.30 45,316.59 38,045.21 37,962.08 42,126.63 41,424.84 44,422.31 44,584.52 57,661.64 57,302.79 71,427.43 72,849.11 73,269.22 74,472.22 49,695.44 50,456.62 49,021.06 48,417.70 45,263.23 41,155.49 42,210.27 41,938.76 43,968.33 44,029.92 43,777.78 42,964.64 39,523.68 34,838.61 40,475.78 39,775.83 51,166.55 50,591.55 51,915.88 61,610.43 62,274.42 56,707.33 56,707.33 72,206.32 48,270.97 49,194.83 50,155.08 35,695.82 37,436.68 MUSTARD Actual Dec-2007 Oct-2007 Nov-2007 Sep-2007 Jul-2007 Aug-2007 Jun-2007 Apr-2007 May-2007 Mar-2007 Jan-2007 Feb-2007 Dec-2006 Oct-2006 Nov-2006 Sep-2006 Jul-2006 Forecast Aug-2006 Jun-2006 Apr-2006 May-2006 Mar-2006 Jan-2006 Feb-2006 Dec-2005 Oct-2005 Nov-2005 Sep-2005 Jul-2005 Aug-2005 Jun-2005 Apr-2005 May-2005 90,000.00 80,000.00 70,000.00 60,000.00 50,000.00 40,000.00 30,000.00 20,000.00 10,000.00 0.00 Fitted Values Forecast -- Event Model Selected Date Jul-2007 Aug-2007 Sep-2007 Oct-2007 Nov-2007 Dec-2007 Total Avg Max Min Monthly 72,206.32 48,270.97 49,194.83 50,155.08 35,695.82 37,436.68 292,959.70 48,826.62 72,206.32 35,695.82 Forecast Quarterly Annual 169,672.12 123,287.59 292,959.70 146,479.85 169,672.12 123,287.59 292,959.70 292,959.70 292,959.70 Summary Comments The forecast has an average error of The data has a standard deviation of The forecast exceeds the accuracy of a simple average by 2.62% 12,121.71 95.49% Audit Trail - Summary Analysis Audit Trail - Statistics Accuracy Measures Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) R-Square Root Mean Square Error Method Statistics Method Selected Basic Method Level (for Event Index) Level Seasonal Trend Decomposition type Seasonal Indexes Index 0 Index 1 Index 2 Index 3 Index 4 Index 5 Index 6 Index 7 Index 8 Index 9 Index 10 Index 11 Value 2.62% 95.49% 2,526.85...
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This document was uploaded on 04/03/2014.

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