89 044 92580 044 93295 042 125484 044 99598 043 73755

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Unformatted text preview: 5.80 0.44% 932.95 0.42% 1,254.84 0.44% 995.98 0.43% 737.55 0.43% 706.43 0.62% 1,601.81 1.57% -181.55 0.42% 317.68 0.32% 100,918.49 0.00% 737.55 0.48% Audit Trail - Statistics Accuracy Measures AIC BIC Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) R-Square Adjusted R-Square Root Mean Square Error Theil Method Statistics Method Selected Level Seasonal Trend Decomposition type Seasonal Indexes Index 1 Index 2 Index 3 Index 4 Index 5 Index 6 Index 7 Index 8 Index 9 Index 10 Index 11 Index 12 Value 531.30 535.18 5.18% 88.35% 87.38% 4,059.30 0.48 Forecast Statistics Durbin Watson (12) Mean Standard Deviation Ljung-Box Value Holt Winters 0.05 0.88 0.26 Multiplicative Value 0.90 1.35 1.29 1.49 1.03 1.02 0.85 0.81 0.86 0.87 0.73 0.80 ForecastX Configuration Parameters Item Data range selected Time scale for data Periods to forecast Seasonal Length Replace Outliers Activated Replace Outliers Standard Deviations Replace Outliers Forecasting Technique Replace Missing Values Replace Missing Values (Lower Limit) Replace Missing Values (Upper Limit) Remove Leading Zeroes Remove Trailing Zeroes Use Holdback Evaluation Holdback Evaluation Period Apply Tracking Signal Apply Tracking Signal (Under Forecast Percentage) Apply Tracking Signal (Over Forecast Percentage) Forecast Method Selected Report Details Run Date: 3/3/2008 6:43:02 PM Author: Barry Keating Note: Value [Book29]Sheet1!$A$1:$B$28 Monthly 6.00 No No No No No No Holt Winters Value 1.63 52,204.40 12,121.71 1.90 Tracking Report Dates Apr-1998 May-1998 Jun-1998 Jul-1998 Aug-1998 Sep-1998 Oct-1998 Nov-1998 Dec-1998 Jan-1999 Feb-1999 Mar-1999 Apr-1999 May-1999 Jun-1999 Jul-1999 Aug-1999 Sep-1999 Oct-1999 Nov-1999 Dec-1999 Jan-2000 Feb-2000 Mar-2000 Apr-2000 May-2000 Jun-2000 Jul-2000 Aug-2000 Sep-2000 Oct-2000 Nov-2000 Dec-2000 Actual 76,029.90 Forecast Fitted Values Lower Limit 50,137.21 49,731.29 75,462.11 68,589.70 68,130.23 80,680.98 80,088.88 Upper Limit 55,227.65 54,983.00 54,576.78 54,309.43 44,384.04 44,404.10 42,336.96 41,865.26 45,512.31 44,935.66 45,798.30 45,316.59 38,045.21 37,962.08 42,126.63 41,424.84 44,422.31 44,584.52 57,661.64 57,302.79 71,427.43 72,849.11 73,269.22 74,472.22 49,695.44 50,456.62 49,021.06 48,417.70 45,263.23 41,155.49 42,210.27 41,938.76 43,968.33 44,029.92 43,777.78 42,964.64 39,523.68 34,838.61 40,475.78 39,775.83 51,166.55 50,591.55 51,915.88 61,610.43 62,274.42 56,707.33 56,707.33 72,206.32 74,937.20 69,475.44 48,270.97 52,304.12 44,237.82 49,194.83 54,589.94 43,799.71 50,155.08 56,935.99 43,374.18 35,695.82 43,874.24 27,517.41 37,436.68 47,019.20 27,854.15 MUSTARD Actual Forecast Fitted Values Dec-2000 Oct-2000 Nov-2000 Sep-2000 Jul-2000 Aug-2000 Jun-2000 Apr-2000 Upper Limit May-2000 Mar-2000 Jan-2000 Feb-2000 Oct-1999 Dec-1999 Nov-1999 Sep-1999 Jul-1999 Aug-1999 Jun-1999 Apr-1999 May-1999 Mar-1999 Jan-1999 Feb-1999 Dec-1998 Oct-1998 Sep-1998 Nov-1998 Jul-1998 Aug-1998 Jun-1998 Apr-1998 May-1998 90,000.00 80,000.00 70,000.00 60,000.00 50,000.00 40,000.00 30,000.00 20,000.00 10,000.00...
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