00 actual forecast fitted values forecast holt winters

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Unformatted text preview: 6.55 3,490.66 5,252.92 4,681.00 4,633.27 3,580.29 5,386.95 4,799.67 53,823.39 4,485.28 5,386.95 3,401.03 Forecast Annual 17,482.08 17,941.13 18,400.17 17,941.13 18,400.17 17,482.08 Summary Comments The forecast has an average error of The data has a standard deviation of The forecast exceeds the accuracy of a simple average by 2.87% 812.22 97.66% Audit Trail - Summary Analysis Audit Trail - Statistics Accuracy Measures Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) R-Square Root Mean Square Error Method Statistics Method Selected Level Seasonal Trend Decomposition type Seasonal Indexes Index 0 Index 1 Index 2 Index 3 Value 2.87% 97.66% 123.15 Forecast Statistics Mean Standard Deviation Value Holt Winters 0.07 0.77 0.31 Multiplicative Value 0.82 0.63 0.94 0.84 ForecastX Configuration Parameters Item Data range selected Time scale for data Periods to forecast Seasonal Length Replace Outliers Activated Replace Outliers Standard Deviations Replace Outliers Forecasting Technique Replace Missing Values Replace Missing Values (Lower Limit) Replace Missing Values (Upper Limit) Remove Leading Zeroes Remove Trailing Zeroes Use Holdback Evaluation Holdback Evaluation Period Apply Tracking Signal Apply Tracking Signal (Under Forecast Percentage) Apply Tracking Signal (Over Forecast Percentage) Forecast Method Selected Report Details Run Date: 2/24/2014 7:10:58 PM Author: Lucas Messenger Note: Value [Chapter 3.xlsx]Book Store Sales'!$A$1:$B$57 Quarterly 12.00 No No Yes No No No Holt Winters Value 3,326.80 812.22 Year 12/31/1986 12/31/1987 12/31/1988 12/31/1989 12/31/1990 12/31/1991 12/31/1992 12/31/1993 12/31/1994 12/31/1995 12/31/1996 12/31/1997 12/31/1998 12/31/1999 12/31/2000 12/31/2001 12/31/2002 12/31/2003 12/31/2004 12/31/2005 Cellular Telephone Adoption 0 0.9891320207 2.4706331904 4.6614201249 7.840611381 Logistics 0.54 1.09 2.20 4.37 8.48 15.84 27.65 43.70 61.18 100 80 76.19 86.66 92.96 60 96.40 98.20 99.10 99.56 99.78 99.89 99.95 99.97 40 20 0 Cellular Telephone Adoption Logistics Dates 1/1/1975 2/1/1975 3/1/1975 4/1/1975 5/1/1975 6/1/1975 7/1/1975 8/1/1975 9/1/1975 10/1/1975 11/1/1975 12/1/1975 1/1/1976 2/1/1976 3/1/1976 4/1/1976 5/1/1976 6/1/1976 7/1/1976 8/1/1976 9/1/1976 10/1/1976 11/1/1976 12/1/1976 1/1/1977 2/1/1977 3/1/1977 4/1/1977 5/1/1977 6/1/1977 7/1/1977 8/1/1977 9/1/1977 10/1/1977 11/1/1977 12/1/1977 1/1/1978 2/1/1978 3/1/1978 4/1/1978 5/1/1978 6/1/1978 7/1/1978 8/1/1978 9/1/1978 10/1/1978 11/1/1978 12/1/1978 1/1/1979 2/1/1979 3/1/1979 4/1/1979 5/1/1979 6/1/1979 7/1/1979 8/1/1979 9/1/1979 10/1/1979 11/1/1979 12/1/1979 1/1/1980 2/1/1980 3/1/1980 4/1/1980 5/1/1980 6/1/1980 7/1/1980 8/1/1980 9/1/1980 10/1/1980 11/1/1980 12/1/1980 1/1/1981 2/1/1981 3/1/1981 4/1/1981 5/1/1981 6/1/1981 7/1/1981 8/1/1981 9/1/1981 10/1/1981 11/1/1981 12/1/1981 1/1/1982 2/1/1982 3/1/1982 4/1/1982 5/1/1982 6/1/1982 7/1/1982 8/1/1982 9/1/1982 10/1/1982 11/1/1982 12/1/1982 1/1/1983 2/1/1983 3/1/1983 4/1/1983 5/1/1983 6/1/1983 7/1/1983 8/1/1983 9/1/1983 10/1/1983 11/1/1983 12...
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