63 1158100 1167733 1125700 1158700 1144700 1141464

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Unformatted text preview: 11,604.38 12,374.00 11,791.53 12,797.00 12,165.84 11,292.00 12,675.87 11,523.00 11,430.56 11,259.00 11,462.78 12,596.00 11,412.16 11,520.00 11,911.04 11,414.00 11,681.40 12,696.00 11,651.65 12,140.00 11,851.75 12,857.00 12,023.37 12,685.00 12,603.98 12,873.00 12,674.40 13,357.00 12,849.41 11,743.00 13,314.26 12,129.00 11,799.04 12,003.00 11,976.85 12,794.00 11,981.81 11,811.00 12,105.05 11,523.00 11,931.69 12,957.00 11,884.74 12,423.00 12,277.17 13,741.00 12,358.06 13,250.00 13,213.55 13,673.00 13,246.01 14,329.00 13,627.84 12,465.00 14,285.65 13,026.00 12,515.11 12,606.00 12,748.59 13,281.00 12,739.71 12,953.00 12,835.04 12,926.00 12,877.68 13,709.00 12,899.90 13,324.00 13,317.11 14,042.00 13,323.20 13,669.00 13,959.33 14,572.00 13,679.35 14,149.00 13,948.46 13,268.00 14,100.63 13,918.00 13,426.30 12,992.00 13,576.64 14,312.00 13,450.46 13,202.00 13,751.20 13,260.00 13,531.13 14,359.00 13,490.54 14,368.00 13,813.83 14,687.00 14,067.63 14,445.00 14,490.15 15,142.00 14,452.78 14,905.00 14,950.84 13,982.00 14,909.88 14,575.00 14,203.20 13,838.00 14,391.82 15,478.00 14,384.54 14,384.54 14,906.90 14,906.90 14,906.90 14,906.90 14,906.90 14,906.90 Sales (000,000) 2,000.00 Jan-1992 May-1992 Sep-1992 Jan-1993 May-1993 Sep-1993 Jan-1994 May-1994 Sep-1994 Jan-1995 May-1995 Sep-1995 Jan-1996 May-1996 Sep-1996 Jan-1997 May-1997 Sep-1997 Jan-1998 May-1998 Sep-1998 Jan-1999 May-1999 Sep-1999 Jan-2000 May-2000 Sep-2000 Jan-2001 May-2001 Sep-2001 Jan-2002 May-2002 Sep-2002 Jan-2003 May-2003 Sep-2003 Jan-2004 May-2004 Sep-2004 Jan-2005 May-2005 Sep-2005 Jan-2006 May-2006 Sep-2006 0.00 Actual Forecast -- Adaptive Exponential Smoothing Selected Forecast Date Monthly Quarterly Jan-2006 14,906.90 Feb-2006 14,906.90 Mar-2006 14,906.90 44,720.69 Apr-2006 14,906.90 May-2006 14,906.90 Jun-2006 14,906.90 44,720.69 Jul-2006 14,906.90 Aug-2006 14,906.90 Sep-2006 14,906.90 44,720.69 Oct-2006 14,906.90 Nov-2006 14,906.90 Dec-2006 14,906.90 44,720.69 Total 178,882.77 Avg 14,906.90 44,720.69 Max 14,906.90 44,720.69 Min 14,906.90 44,720.69 Forecast Fitted Values Annual 178,882.77 178,882.77 178,882.77 178,882.77 Summary Comments The forecast has an average error of The data has a standard deviation of The forecast exceeds the accuracy of a simple average by 4.26% 2,309.47 94.36% Audit Trail - Summary Analysis Audit Trail - Statistics Accuracy Measures Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) R-Square Root Mean Square Error Method Statistics Method Selected Beta Value 4.26% 94.36% 546.96 Forecast Statistics Mean Standard Deviation Value Adaptive Exponential Smoothing 0.45 ForecastX Configuration Parameters Item Data range selected Time scale for data Periods to forecast Seasonal Length Replace Outliers Activated Replace Outliers Standard Deviations Replace Outliers Forecasting Technique Replace Missing Values Replace Missing Values (Lower Limit) Replace Missing Values (Upper Limit) Remove Leading Zeroes Remove Trailing Zeroes Use Holdback Evaluation Holdback Evaluation Period Apply Tracking Signal Apply Tracking Signal (Under Forecast Percentage) Apply Tracking Signal (Over Forecast Percentage) Forecast Method Selected Report Details Run Date: 2/24/2014 7:06:53 PM Author: Lucas Messenger Note: Value [Chapter 3.xlsx]C3P11'!$A$1:$B$169 Monthly 12.00 No No Yes No No No Adaptive Exponential Smoothing Value 10,438.21 2,309.47 Date Mar-92 Jun-92 Sep-92 Dec-92 Mar-93 Jun-93 Sep-93 Dec-93 Mar-94 Jun-94 Sep-94 Dec-94 Mar-95 Jun-95 Sep-95 Dec-95...
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This document was uploaded on 04/03/2014.

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