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Unformatted text preview: forecast exceeds the accuracy of a simple average by SER 4.21 3.55 2.82 5.08 4.34 7.41 -1.14 -1.97 -0.42 5.56 3.98 0.18 %ER 17.70 12.62 7.94 25.84 18.85 54.92 1.29 3.87 0.18 30.94 15.84 0.03 15.83 3.98 9.09% APE 13.15% 9.87% 6.87% 11.82% 10.85% 17.23% -3.44% -6.34% -1.35% 15.03% 12.44% 0.63% 13.15% 9.87% 6.87% 11.82% 10.85% 17.23% 3.44% 6.34% 1.35% 15.03% 12.44% 0.63% 6.52% 20.82 95.24% Audit Trail - Summary Analysis Audit Trail - Statistics Accuracy Measures Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) R-Square Root Mean Square Error Method Statistics Method Selected Level Seasonal Trend Decomposition type Seasonal Indexes Index 0 Index 1 Index 2 Index 3 Index 4 Index 5 Index 6 Index 7 Index 8 Index 9 Index 10 Index 11 Value 6.52% 95.24% 4.54 Forecast Statistics Mean Standard Deviation Value Holt Winters 0.65 0.34 0.00 Multiplicative Value 0.83 0.97 1.14 1.13 1.07 1.06 1.02 0.99 0.94 0.94 0.84 0.83 ForecastX Configuration Parameters Item Data range selected Time scale for data Periods to forecast Seasonal Length Replace Outliers Activated Replace Outliers Standard Deviations Replace Outliers Forecasting Technique Replace Missing Values Replace Missing Values (Lower Limit) Replace Missing Values (Upper Limit) Remove Leading Zeroes Remove Trailing Zeroes Use Holdback Evaluation Holdback Evaluation Period Apply Tracking Signal Apply Tracking Signal (Under Forecast Percentage) Apply Tracking Signal (Over Forecast Percentage) Forecast Method Selected Report Details Run Date: 2/24/2014 7:44:20 PM Author: Lucas Messenger Note: Value [Chapter 3.xlsx]NHS'!$A$1:$B$457 Monthly 12.00 No No Yes No No No Holt Winters Value 58.39 20.82 Actual 29.00 Forecast 34.00 44.00 54.00 57.00 51.00 53.00 46.00 46.00 39.00 41.00 53.00 55.00 62.00 55.00 56.00 57.00 59.00 58.00 55.00 49.00 47.00 57.00 68.00 84.00 81.00 78.00 74.00 64.00 74.00 71.00 63.00 55.00 51.00 57.00 63.00 75.00 85.00 80.00 77.00 68.00 72.00 68.00 70.00 53.00 50.00 53.00 58.00 73.00 72.00 68.00 63.00 64.00 68.00 60.00 54.00 41.00 35.00 43.00 44.00 36.00 44.00 50.00 55.00 61.00 50.00 46.00 39.00 33.00 37.00 40.00 49.00 44.00 45.00 38.00 36.00 34.00 28.00 29.00 27.00 29.00 28.00 29.00 36.00 32.00 36.00 34.00 31.00 36.00 39.00 40.00 39.00 33.00 44.00 46.00 57.00 59.00 64.00 59.00 51.00 50.00 48.00 51.00 45.00 48.00 52.00 58.00 63.00 61.00 59.00 58.00 52.00 48.00 53.00 55.00 42.00 38.00 48.00 55.00 67.00 60.00 65.00 63.00 61.00 54.00 52.00 51.00 47.00 55.00 59.00 89.00 84.00 75.00 66.00 57.00 52.00 60.00 54.00 48.00 49.00 53.00 59.00 73.00 72.00 62.00 58.00 55.00 56.00 52.00 43.00 37.00 43.00 55.00 68.00 64.00 65.00 57.00 59.00 54.00 57.00 43.00 42.00 52.00 51.00 58.00 60.00 61.00 58.00 62.00 61.00 49.00 51.00 47.00 40.00 45.00 50.00 58.00 52.00 50.00 46.00 38.00 37.00 34.00 29.00 30.00 40.00 51.00 50.00 47.00 43.00 46.00 37.00 41.00 39.00 36.00 48.00 55.00 56.00 53.00 52.00 53.00 52.00 56.00 51.00 48.00 42.00 44.00 50.00 60.00 66.00 58.00 59.00 55.00 57.00 56.00 53.00 51.00 46.00 58.00 74.00 65.00 55.00 52.00 59.0...
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