Xlsxc3p11a1b169 monthly 1200 no no yes no no no

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Unformatted text preview: Mar-96 Jun-96 Sep-96 Dec-96 Mar-97 Jun-97 Sep-97 Dec-97 Mar-98 Jun-98 Sep-98 Dec-98 Mar-99 Jun-99 Sep-99 Dec-99 Mar-00 Jun-00 Sep-00 Dec-00 Mar-01 Jun-01 Sep-01 Dec-01 Mar-02 Jun-02 Sep-02 Dec-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 Sales 1866 1666 2351 2455 2169 1815 2498 2637 2326 2020 2858 2915 2725 2283 3134 3066 2876 2445 3190 3407 3197 2575 3290 3693 3273 2713 3514 3794 3480 2943 3654 4108 3628 3203 4051 4010 3719 3084 4234 4073 3983 3132 4328 4007 3969 3257 4824 4129 4298 3312 4811 4336 4261 3278 4991 4447 Sales 6000 5000 4000 3000 Sales 2000 1000 0 A. Yes, the trend and seasonality of the data suggest the use of the Winters model to complete this forecast. The data does appear to be seasonal in nature, which further encourages the use of this model. Tracking Report Dates Mar-1992 Jun-1992 Sep-1992 Dec-1992 Mar-1993 Jun-1993 Sep-1993 Dec-1993 Mar-1994 Jun-1994 Sep-1994 Dec-1994 Mar-1995 Jun-1995 Sep-1995 Dec-1995 Mar-1996 Jun-1996 Sep-1996 Dec-1996 Mar-1997 Jun-1997 Sep-1997 Dec-1997 Mar-1998 Jun-1998 Sep-1998 Dec-1998 Mar-1999 Jun-1999 Sep-1999 Dec-1999 Mar-2000 Jun-2000 Sep-2000 Dec-2000 Mar-2001 Jun-2001 Sep-2001 Dec-2001 Mar-2002 Jun-2002 Sep-2002 Dec-2002 Mar-2003 Jun-2003 Sep-2003 Dec-2003 Mar-2004 Jun-2004 Sep-2004 Dec-2004 Mar-2005 Jun-2005 Sep-2005 Dec-2005 Mar-2006 Jun-2006 Sep-2006 Dec-2006 Mar-2007 Jun-2007 Sep-2007 Dec-2007 Mar-2008 Jun-2008 6,000.00 Sep-2008 Dec-2008 Actual 1,866.00 Forecast 1,666.00 2,351.00 2,455.00 2,169.00 1,815.00 2,498.00 2,637.00 2,326.00 2,020.00 2,858.00 2,915.00 2,725.00 2,283.00 3,134.00 3,066.00 2,876.00 2,445.00 3,190.00 3,407.00 3,197.00 2,575.00 3,290.00 3,693.00 3,273.00 2,713.00 3,514.00 3,794.00 3,480.00 2,943.00 3,654.00 4,108.00 3,628.00 3,203.00 4,051.00 4,010.00 3,719.00 3,084.00 4,234.00 4,073.00 3,983.00 3,132.00 4,328.00 4,007.00 3,969.00 3,257.00 4,824.00 4,129.00 4,298.00 3,312.00 4,811.00 4,336.00 4,261.00 3,278.00 4,991.00 4,447.00 Fitted Values 1,938.53 1,699.07 2,382.78 2,487.77 2,060.52 1,837.06 2,584.43 2,689.46 2,327.91 1,969.85 2,728.65 2,882.13 2,533.74 2,198.34 3,099.53 3,187.23 2,919.62 2,450.86 3,372.25 3,319.76 3,099.18 2,629.89 3,473.61 3,620.36 3,385.63 2,747.85 3,537.21 3,893.88 3,484.85 2,872.49 3,719.54 4,030.45 3,681.10 3,086.69 3,880.14 4,338.76 3,840.71 3,334.60 4,165.67 4,244.30 3,881.38 3,267.58 4,371.96 4,260.01 4,074.89 3,245.66 4,448.18 4,203.48 4,136.15 3,386.38 4,907.81 4,285.52 4,399.36 3,427.22 4,958.92 4,431.45 4,431.45 4,399.83 3,401.03 5,118.90 4,562.32 4,516.55 3,490.66 5,252.92 4,681.00 4,633.27 3,580.29 5,386.95 4,799.67 Sales 5,000.00 4,000.00 3,000.00 2,000.00 1,000.00 Mar-1992 Jul-1992 Nov-1992 Mar-1993 Jul-1993 Nov-1993 Mar-1994 Jul-1994 Nov-1994 Mar-1995 Jul-1995 Nov-1995 Mar-1996 Jul-1996 Nov-1996 Mar-1997 Jul-1997 Nov-1997 Mar-1998 Jul-1998 Nov-1998 Mar-1999 Jul-1999 Nov-1999 Mar-2000 Jul-2000 Nov-2000 Mar-2001 Jul-2001 Nov-2001 Mar-2002 Jul-2002 Nov-2002 Mar-2003 Jul-2003 Nov-2003 Mar-2004 Jul-2004 Nov-2004 Mar-2005 Jul-2005 Nov-2005 Mar-2006 Jul-2006 Nov-2006 Mar-2007 Jul-2007 Nov-2007 Mar-2008 Jul-2008 Nov-2008 0.00 Actual Forecast Fitted Values Forecast -- Holt-Winters Selected Date Mar-2006 Jun-2006 Sep-2006 Dec-2006 Mar-2007 Jun-2007 Sep-2007 Dec-2007 Mar-2008 Jun-2008 Sep-2008 Dec-2008 Total Avg Max Min Quarterly 4,399.83 3,401.03 5,118.90 4,562.32 4,51...
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This document was uploaded on 04/03/2014.

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