Y 95 jun 95 jul 95 aug 95 sep 95 oct 95 nov 95 dec 95

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Unformatted text preview: t-96 Nov-96 Dec-96 Jan-97 Feb-97 Mar-97 Apr-97 May-97 Jun-97 Jul-97 Aug-97 Sep-97 Oct-97 Nov-97 Dec-97 Jan-98 Feb-98 Mar-98 Apr-98 May-98 Jun-98 Jul-98 Aug-98 Sep-98 Oct-98 Nov-98 Dec-98 Jan-99 Feb-99 Mar-99 Apr-99 May-99 Jun-99 Jul-99 Aug-99 Sep-99 Oct-99 Nov-99 Dec-99 Jan-00 Feb-00 Mar-00 Apr-00 May-00 Jun-00 Jul-00 Aug-00 Sep-00 Oct-00 Nov-00 Dec-00 Jan-01 Feb-01 Mar-01 Apr-01 May-01 Jun-01 Jul-01 Aug-01 Sep-01 Oct-01 Nov-01 Dec-01 Jan-02 Feb-02 Mar-02 Apr-02 May-02 Jun-02 Jul-02 Aug-02 Sep-02 Oct-02 Nov-02 Dec-02 Jan-03 Feb-03 Mar-03 Apr-03 May-03 Jun-03 Jul-03 Aug-03 Sep-03 Oct-03 Nov-03 Dec-03 Jan-04 Feb-04 Mar-04 Apr-04 May-04 Jun-04 Jul-04 Aug-04 Sep-04 Oct-04 Nov-04 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Sales (000,000) 6910 6959 7268 7023 7555 7021 7297 7558 6945 7464 7138 7355 6854 6699 7324 7514 7898 7814 8049 8322 7730 8049 7449 7774 6998 7275 8177 8143 8364 8292 8689 8661 8080 8264 7822 8352 7507 7341 8243 8269 8615 8549 8902 9035 8271 8328 7987 8383 7532 7943 8685 8502 8977 8716 8978 9548 8675 9032 9005 8921 8688 8640 9592 9332 9976 9460 10071 10517 9539 9850 9227 9699 9147 9114 9972 9825 10423 10203 10458 10541 9844 10455 9715 10338 9583 9515 10385 10571 10792 10553 11083 10939 10297 11056 10229 10703 10092 10532 11464 11240 11393 11332 11752 11581 11257 11447 10742 11372 10726 10691 11919 11312 12002 12191 12374 12797 11292 11523 11259 12596 11520 11414 12696 12140 12857 12685 12873 13357 11743 12129 12003 12794 11811 11523 12957 12423 13741 13250 13673 14329 12465 13026 12606 13281 12953 12926 13709 13324 14042 13669 14572 14149 13268 13918 12992 14312 13202 13260 14359 14368 14687 14445 15142 14905 13982 14575 13838 15478 Full Service Retail Restaurant Sales (000,000) 20000 Sales (000,000) 15000 10000 5000 0 The original data has trend and seasonality, and the Winters model reflects that seasonality and trend. Also, out of four methods used, Winters has an RMSE of 481.2, the lowest of the used models. Tracking Report Dates Jan-1992 Feb-1992 Mar-1992 Apr-1992 May-1992 Jun-1992 Jul-1992 Aug-1992 Sep-1992 Oct-1992 Nov-1992 Dec-1992 Jan-1993 Feb-1993 Mar-1993 Apr-1993 May-1993 Jun-1993 Jul-1993 Aug-1993 Sep-1993 Oct-1993 Nov-1993 Dec-1993 Jan-1994 Feb-1994 Mar-1994 Apr-1994 May-1994 Jun-1994 Jul-1994 Aug-1994 Sep-1994 Oct-1994 Nov-1994 Dec-1994 Jan-1995 Feb-1995 Mar-1995 Apr-1995 May-1995 Jun-1995 Jul-1995 Aug-1995 Sep-1995 Oct-1995 Nov-1995 Dec-1995 Jan-1996 Feb-1996 Mar-1996 Apr-1996 May-1996 Jun-1996 Jul-1996 Aug-1996 Sep-1996 Oct-1996 Nov-1996 Dec-1996 Jan-1997 Feb-1997 Mar-1997 Apr-1997 May-1997 Jun-1997 Jul-1997 Aug-1997 18,000.00 Sep-1997 Oct-1997 Nov-1997 Dec-1997 Jan-1998 Feb-1998 Mar-1998 Apr-1998 May-1998 Jun-1998 Jul-1998 Aug-1998 Sep-1998 Oct-1998 Nov-1998 16,000.00 Dec-1998 Jan-1999 Feb-1999 Mar-1999 Apr-1999 May-1999 Jun-1999 Jul-1999 Aug-1999 Sep-1999 Oct-1999 Nov-1999 Dec-1999 Jan-2000 Feb-2000 Mar-2000 14,000.00 Apr-2000 May-2000 Jun-2000 Jul-2000 Aug-2000 Sep-2000 Oct-2000 Nov-2000 Dec-2000 Jan-2001 Feb-2001 Mar-2001 Apr-2001 May...
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This document was uploaded on 04/03/2014.

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