5 975 lower 626 932 1394 2020 2814 3755 4787 5823

Info iconThis preview shows page 1. Sign up to view the full content.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
This is the end of the preview. Sign up to access the rest of the document.

Unformatted text preview: .11 88.43 50.41 88.43 6.26 23.27% 2.98 76.61% Audit Trail - Summary Analysis Audit Trail - Historical Versus Fitted Analysis Series: Cellular Telephone Adoption Original Date Data 1987 0.99 1988 2.47 1989 4.66 1990 7.84 Avg 3.99 Max 7.84 Min 0.99 StDev 2.98 Var 8.86 Median 3.57 Fitted Data Series % Change Error 0.80 1.93 3.51 5.71 2.99 5.71 0.80 2.13 4.52 2.72 0.19 0.54 1.15 2.14 1.01 2.14 0.19 0.85 0.73 0.85 149.78% 88.67% 68.20% 102.22% 149.78% 68.20% 42.44% 18.01% 88.67% Forecast % Change 140.96% 81.99% 62.63% 95.19% 140.96% 62.63% 40.80% 16.65% 81.99% Cumulative Error 0.19 0.37 0.63 1.01 0.55 1.01 0.19 0.35 0.13 0.50 Cumulative MAPE 19.12% 15.05% 12.79% 11.29% 14.56% 19.12% 11.29% 3.41% 0.12% 13.92% Audit Trail - Statistics Accuracy Measures AIC BIC Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) R-Square Adjusted R-Square Root Mean Square Error Method Statistics Method Selected p(inovation rate) r(immitation rate) qbar(cummulative value) Value 15.12 14.50 23.27% 76.61% 76.61% 1.25 Value Base Model 0.01 0.42 100.00 ForecastX Configuration Parameters Item Value Data Range Selected Telephone Adoption.xls]Cellular Telephone'!$A$1:$B$6 [Cellular Time scale for data Annual Periods to forecast 14 Seasonal Length Replace Outliers Activated No Replace Outliers Standard Deviations Replace Outliers Forecasting Technique Replace Missing Values No Replace Missing Values (Lower Limit) Replace Missing Values (Upper Limit) Remove Leading Zeros Yes Remove Trailing Zeros No Use Holdback Evaluation No Holdback Evaluation Period Apply Tracking Signal No Apply Tracking Signal (Under Forecast Percentage) Apply Tracking Signal (Over Forecast Percentage) Forecast Method Selected Bass Model Report Details Run Date: 4/16/2005 2:6 PM Author: John Galt Development, Inc. Note: ForecastX Forecast Statistics Durbin Watson(1) Mean Standard Deviation Ljung-Box Value 0.24 3.99 2.98 0.00 Year 12/31/1986 12/31/1987 12/31/1988 12/31/1989 12/31/1990 12/31/1991 12/31/1992 12/31/1993 12/31/1994 12/31/1995 12/31/1996 12/31/1997 12/31/1998 12/31/1999 12/31/2000 12/31/2001 12/31/2002 12/31/2003 12/31/2004 12/31/2005 Cellular Telephone Adoption 0 0.9891320207 2.4706331904 4.6614201249 7.840611381 Logistics 0.54 1.09 120 2.20 4.37 8.48 15.84 100 27.65 43.70 61.18 76.19 80 86.66 92.96 96.40 60 98.20 99.10 99.56 99.78 40 99.89 99.95 99.97 20 0 Cellular Telephone Adoption Logistics...
View Full Document

This document was uploaded on 04/03/2014.

Ask a homework question - tutors are online